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[TrashMan]

Amazing post Lolemn. Great job.

But permit me 2 short comments:



1) "Now the Loroi, on the other hand, are not an open society […] The drawback, however, is that much information tends to stay compartmentalized within each local intellectual community, and rarely jumps the geographical and social boundaries between telepathic societies. This is part of why the overall rate of Loroi technical advancement is slow compared to ours; each group rarely knows about what another is doing, and so the "connections" that are so critical to innovation, where two unrelated technologies A and B are combined to create innovation C, are rare in Loroi society."

Observe the bolded. PART. So there's more to it apprenlty.


2) I was relating my impression and predictions on how the story will go based on seen patterns.
All stories have a one or more main characters. And the creators loves his creation - but they love some more than others. Time spent on a character and it's level of development is a good indicators.

There's tons of info on Loroi and the individual characters. You could say that we know more about Fireblade then we know of Alex. Combined with all the art and the fact tha the Loroi are on the "cover" with Alex....
I don't think you can say I'm being unreasonable here, as everything seems to indicate that Loroi are Arioch "favorite" and it's seems clear that Fireblade, Temo and Beryl are part of the main cast. Hence, why it looks so obvious that Loroi will end up being the right choice.
It remains to be seen if the looks are decieveing.

[TrashMan]

@Solemn


Re: The Loroi Option

The Loroi may not not require total control of all spacefaring, but they really seem to require such of actual warships

In regards to the Loroi:

In the case of the Loroi Alliance, only the Loroi, Historians and Nissek maintain separate military fleets, and the other Union members operate only civilian vessels (including system police/defense, transports and some armed scouts and couriers like Mozin's Prophet's Reason)

Contrast with the Umiak:

Non-Umiak shipping is kept under very tight restriction, and for the most part, the populations of client states are required to remain in their own systems. When client uprisings occur, information about them rarely leaves the system. It is unlikely that the Umiak would use a client ship as a scout or put in a position where they could compromise security (or flee), unless it was absolutely necessary. For this reason and others, for the most part, client ships would not be used as part of an Umiak assault force.

Doesn't shipping reffer to civilian transports? not military vessels.
And being an ally and being a client race would not be the same.

The Umiak do not treat all their client races the same;

They do not even treat all heir alleis the same. So it would be the case fo what kind of deal we could make. Certanly us approaching them and asking for an allaince would go better then them coming to us.

This is not a fight of good vs. evil, it's a fight of grey vs. grey.

This only works is one grey is not visibly lighter than other.

[bunnyboy]

I don't think you can say I'm being unreasonable here, as everything seems to indicate that Loroi are Arioch "favorite" and it's seems clear that Fireblade, Temo and Beryl are part of the main cast. Hence, why it looks so obvious that Loroi will end up being the right choice.
It remains to be seen if the looks are decieveing.

Sometimes the story is made so, that we start to love one option and then we see, how wrong it was.
Anyway, I think the Arioch is good to keep secrets (the ones he wan't to keep in secret) and then surprise us all.

[Ktrain]

I swear, the lack of pin up photos has really undermined the audience's perception of the Umiak.

Furthermore, I think fear and an inferiority complex drive Umiak foreign policy and conversely, arrogance and a superiority complex is what drives the Loroi. The Loroi's position in the war may very well be due to the complacency and perception of superiority the developed after previous conflicts. Farsense (and other psychic tools), while a powerful, have made the Loroi less adaptive. The Umiak created a production and logistics method which overwhelms the enemy, while the Loroi relied on their biology to overwhelm their foes. One force is exponential ((AL)^a*K^[1-a])) and the other other is fixed (Z).

It may very well be Jardin's presence which forces the Loroi to shift their strategic paradigm away from their biology and towards more malleable factors.

Sorry this is just a tangent, but I think it is a relevant calculation for us the audience to employ when considering which side is more desirable. Assuming that we as species want to avoid extinction and being on the losing side causes extinction, consider this:

CE = Y + Z + e
Combat Effectiveness = Output + Fixed Factors + error term, where fixed factors are a races natural endowments

CE = Q(Z)*(Y) + Z + e

Now Q is the measure of how well a species utilizes output based off of fixed factors. Effective use of output.

Now one can overcomplicate this model by adding a production function for output.

CE = Q(Z)*[(AL)^a*K^[1-a])] + Z + e

(AL)^a*K^[1-a] is a Cobbs Douglas Production function, where A is the technology, L is labor, K is capital. a denotes the share of output derived from labor and 1-a denotes the share of output derived from capital (empirically the contemporary a=2/3 but that doesn't really mean anything given our alien setting but let's assume it anyways)

Since Z is a constant, Q is a constant. Suppose Z for the Loroi is greater than that for the Umiak => Q Loroi > Q Umiak. And lets assume A=1 (normalize it, both parties have same tech level)

Let this be the combat effectiveness equation for the Loroi:

CEl = Ql*Ll^.66*Kl^.33 + Zl

or

CEl = Ql*Yl + Zl

Let this be the combat effectiveness equation for the Umiak:

CEu = Qu*Lu^.66*Ku^.33 + Zu

or

CEu = Qu*Yu + Zu

Since the war is now in a stalemate assume CEl=CEu

Thus Ql*Yl + Zl = Qu*Yu + Zu

(Note, I gave the equation with the Cobbs Douglas in case someone wants an analysis of relative labor and capital inputs between belligerents. Furthermore, I want to do an analysis of the human problem of military competitiveness in the future using this)

Now we have a framework in which we can compare both the economies and natural racial abilities. We just need to make some assumptions. Assume the natural abilities of the Loroi are twice that of the Umiak (Ql = 2, Qu = 1) and that

Yu = 2Yl + Zl - Zu

Thus the ratio of Umiak output to Loroi output given by this model is:

Yu
----- = 2 + (Zl - Zu)/Yl
Yl

Where (Zl - Zu)/Yl is the compensating factor for the Umiak for the difference in fixed endowments.

Let's say Yl=10, then Yu= 20 + difference in endowments

Now, while this investigation into the equilibrium stalemate in the war is interesting it has diverged from the original intent from this post. Namely that the Loroi have focused primarily on Z while the Umiak have focused mainly on Y. Since the Loroi have gone from losing the war to a stalemate, one can infer that they have experienced a massive increase in CE (dCE/dt for the Loroi is greater than that of the Umiak over the previous time periods.)

Using CE = Q(Z)*(Y) + Z + e take the derivative according to t, time

dCE/dt = [dQ/dt*dZ*dt]*Y + Q(Z)*dY/dt + dZ/dt

What I am arguing is that
Q(Z)*dY/dt increases faster than [dQ/dt*Y + 1]*dZ/dt
i.e. That increasing output growth increases combat effectiveness faster than increasing the growth rate of fixed endowments (e.g.: breeding more farseers or training more Fireblades) over time. I believe the Loroi are adapting to focus more on output than on their own biological abilities as the war progresses. Example: They would become more reliant on allies for support and nationalize key industries.

Now if Jardin believes that dCE/dt is greater for the Umiak than Loroi, humanity will side with the Umiak. What the Loroi need to convince him of is that dCE/dt for the Loroi is greater.

Now I will elaborate on the human problem and why we are not a short term threat but are a long term problem in a later post using this methodology.

[Zakharra]

I swear, the lack of pin up photos has really undermined the audience's perception of the Umiak.

Furthermore, I think fear and an inferiority complex drive Umiak foreign policy and conversely, arrogance and a superiority complex is what drives the Loroi. The Loroi's position in the war may very well be due to the complacency and perception of superiority the developed after previous conflicts. Farsense (and other psychic tools), while a powerful, have made the Loroi less adaptive. The Umiak created a production and logistics method which overwhelms the enemy, while the Loroi relied on their biology to overwhelm their foes. One force is exponential ((AL)^a*K^[1-a])) and the other other is fixed (Z).

It may very well be Jardin's presence which forces the Loroi to shift their strategic paradigm away from their biology and towards more malleable factors.

Sorry this is just a tangent, but I think it is a relevant calculation for us the audience to employ when considering which side is more desirable. Assuming that we as species want to avoid extinction and being on the losing side causes extinction, consider this:

CE = Y + Z + e
Combat Effectiveness = Output + Fixed Factors + error term, where fixed factors are a races natural endowments

CE = Q(Z)*(Y) + Z + e

Now Q is the measure of how well a species utilizes output based off of fixed factors. Effective use of output.

Now one can overcomplicate this model by adding a production function for output.

CE = Q(Z)*[(AL)^a*K^[1-a])] + Z + e

(AL)^a*K^[1-a] is a Cobbs Douglas Production function, where A is the technology, L is labor, K is capital. a denotes the share of output derived from labor and 1-a denotes the share of output derived from capital (empirically the contemporary a=2/3 but that doesn't really mean anything given our alien setting but let's assume it anyways)

Since Z is a constant, Q is a constant. Suppose Z for the Loroi is greater than that for the Umiak => Q Loroi > Q Umiak. And lets assume A=1 (normalize it, both parties have same tech level)

Let this be the combat effectiveness equation for the Loroi:

CEl = Ql*Ll^.66*Kl^.33 + Zl

or

CEl = Ql*Yl + Zl

Let this be the combat effectiveness equation for the Umiak:

CEu = Qu*Lu^.66*Ku^.33 + Zu

or

CEu = Qu*Yu + Zu

Since the war is now in a stalemate assume CEl=CEu

Thus Ql*Yl + Zl = Qu*Yu + Zu

(Note, I gave the equation with the Cobbs Douglas in case someone wants an analysis of relative labor and capital inputs between belligerents. Furthermore, I want to do an analysis of the human problem of military competitiveness in the future using this)

Now we have a framework in which we can compare both the economies and natural racial abilities. We just need to make some assumptions. Assume the natural abilities of the Loroi are twice that of the Umiak (Ql = 2, Qu = 1) and that

Yu = 2Yl + Zl - Zu

Thus the ratio of Umiak output to Loroi output given by this model is:

Yu
----- = 2 + (Zl - Zu)/Yl
Yl

Where (Zl - Zu)/Yl is the compensating factor for the Umiak for the difference in fixed endowments.

Let's say Yl=10, then Yu= 20 + difference in endowments

Now, while this investigation into the equilibrium stalemate in the war is interesting it has diverged from the original intent from this post. Namely that the Loroi have focused primarily on Z while the Umiak have focused mainly on Y. Since the Loroi have gone from losing the war to a stalemate, one can infer that they have experienced a massive increase in CE (dCE/dt for the Loroi is greater than that of the Umiak over the previous time periods.)

Using CE = Q(Z)*(Y) + Z + e take the derivative according to t, time

dCE/dt = [dQ/dt*dZ*dt]*Y + Q(Z)*dY/dt + dZ/dt

What I am arguing is that
Q(Z)*dY/dt increases faster than [dQ/dt*Y + 1]*dZ/dt
i.e. That increasing output growth increases combat effectiveness faster than increasing the growth rate of fixed endowments (e.g.: breeding more farseers or training more Fireblades) over time. I believe the Loroi are adapting to focus more on output than on their own biological abilities as the war progresses. Example: They would become more reliant on allies for support and nationalize key industries.

Now if Jardin believes that dCE/dt is greater for the Umiak than Loroi, humanity will side with the Umiak. What the Loroi need to convince him of is that dCE/dt for the Loroi is greater.

Now I will elaborate on the human problem and why we are not a short term threat but are a long term problem in a later post using this methodology.

Ack!
*Mathmatic Wall of Text crits you for 10,000. 9,000 Overkill*
-thud-
...ow. Alright, so you are basically saying, the Loroi are more rigid and tend to stagnate, while the Umiak are more flexible and have a much higher production/research level?

[LegioCI]

Solemn, your above Wall-o-Text was an amazing read, however there is one point I'd like to nitpick about the relative research capabilities of Humanity and the Loroi.

Loroi researchers actually have several advantages due to their biology which our researchers do not share. Loroi longevity means that a highly proficient expert can contribute longer and so a research cell can maintain itself better; imagine if most of the great physicists, chemists, mathematicians and doctors born in the past 200 years were not just still alive but had remained as mentally sharp as they were at their peak.

Actually, keeping established researchers around for centuries like that may be as much a hindrance to scientific advancement as a benefit. Humans short lifespans mean that there is a constant cycling of fresh new minds and outlooks in our scientific community, young scientists who are willing to work with radical ideas on the outside-chance that they're actually right. The Loroi, though, would have to deal with keeping older scientists and researchers around for centuries, and if they have outdated or even wrong ideas they could poison the well, so to speak, using their positions to squash new ideas that might challenge their own theories and beliefs. (This is something that isn't uncommon in human scientific circles: Imagine if Fred Hoyle had another two hundred years of talking about how the Big Bang Theory is rubbish.)

To compare, humanity has a constant influx of new scientists, researchers and theorists, those willing to make a name for themselves with outlandish proposals that every so often hit the jackpot, while old men and women, who's shoulders have been stood upon to find the newest theories, die or retired to let the new generation flourish. It's a very good environment for advancing science in leaps and bounds, which is what we've been doing for the past century or so and what Humanity will probably continue to do in Outsider.

[Mjolnir]

Actually, keeping established researchers around for centuries like that may be as much a hindrance to scientific advancement as a benefit. Humans short lifespans mean that there is a constant cycling of fresh new minds and outlooks in our scientific community, young scientists who are willing to work with radical ideas on the outside-chance that they're actually right. The Loroi, though, would have to deal with keeping older scientists and researchers around for centuries, and if they have outdated or even wrong ideas they could poison the well, so to speak, using their positions to squash new ideas that might challenge their own theories and beliefs. (This is something that isn't uncommon in human scientific circles: Imagine if Fred Hoyle had another two hundred years of talking about how the Big Bang Theory is rubbish.)

While there are some individual examples of researchers who have gotten stuck in a rut, it is not generally the case. In fact, statistical studies indicate the opposite, that the older years are the more productive ones on average, and there's good reasons why...older researchers are already established, have already demonstrated their competence, and have less to lose by chasing long shot ideas, better odds of obtaining the needed funding and equipment, and much to gain if things pay off. And they've generally developed a deeper understanding of the various flaws of failed approaches that someone with less experience is likely to repeat, or to have encountered various techniques applicable to solving a problem. The development of relativity theory (particularly GR) is a historical example...Einstein received help from more established physicists and mathematicians in development of the theory, working out problems, testing it experimentally, etc.

Fred Hoyle would just learn to admit he was wrong or become known as a failure. His major success with nucleosynthesis would not let him hold physics hostage.

[Michael]

i think we'd also have to keep in mind how the Loroi mind would work, i don't know how Arioch has this set up, but a race which lives long tends to be described as think in the long term, they think more in the future and think about things in years, where as we would think about it in months or days, so when the Loroi develop a tech they would be thinking about its uses and application in the long term, so they might actually have a similar advancement in tech we have since they would put more time into the detail if you get what im saying, i suppose iv not put forward a very good argument but may be some will get the gist of what im saying and put a better one forward? but then this all hangs on the fact that beings of longevity (that the right spelling?) are described like that and maybe the Loroi don't, up to Arioch if they do, but it is something to bear in mind

[Trantor]

While there are some individual examples of researchers who have gotten stuck in a rut, it is not generally the case. In fact, statistical studies indicate the opposite

Oh´ those handy statistix ex macchina...
...always there when you need them.

that the older years are the more productive ones on average

Measured how?

and there's good reasons why...older researchers are already established, have already demonstrated their competence, and have less to lose by chasing long shot ideas, better odds of obtaining the needed funding and equipment

In a ideal world maybe.

and much to gain if things pay off.

Huh. And waaay more to lose if they don´t.

And they've generally developed a deeper understanding of the various flaws of failed approaches

Or they just had luck. Two or three times in a row, just enough to bring them in position.

or to have encountered various techniques applicable to solving a problem.

You won´t believe how good some people are at ignoring them.
I speak with experience - 80% of our time at the A380 project was simply wasted with constant fighting against the french dimwits. On all fields, technically, organization, human resources and so on and so on.

Fred Hoyle would just learn to admit he was wrong or become known as a failure. His major success with nucleosynthesis would not let him hold physics hostage.

FH was never in a position to cripple progress.
But that is due to our open society.
Now look at the closed society of the Loroi.

So much for the field of theoretics, now let´s have a look on the practical side. e.g. industry and technical developement. There´s a whole instrumentarium of tools perfect for crippling progress: Patents, badly designed laws, myriads of lawyers eager to profit from that quarrel and much muuuch more.
I recently learned about the biography of Victor Kaplan, and how others tried to destroy him. He won at the end, but his health was so ruined, he died shortly after the last lawsuit.
Envy is a strong primum mobile, too, i saw it with my own eyes: The next generation airbus´ fuselage is not made of wonderful GLARE but of crappy carbonfibers, because the french chief engineers collectivly didn´t like the fact that GLARE wasn´t developed by THEM. Carbonfiber is not suitable for commercial airliners in the long run, at least not how they implement it currently (namely as a substitute for Duraluminium or GLARE instead of making use of their real strengths), but they just don´t care. They just serve their Egos.
This and much more happened and still happens in our open society.
Now imagine this in a caste-society, with every caste defending their grounds. Tempo already stated that they have a history of endless bloodshed - it´s easy to imagine how bloodshed shifted to business.

[TrashMan]

So..in other words, Loroi are superior to us dumb monkies in every way, except culturally (and even that is a temporary condition)?

Well, I really don't know what to say.
You say it doesn't make sense humans have any natural advantage, but the insider implies our culture is only PART of what makes us better researches - which implaies a natural advantage.

[Michael]

comment Arioch?

[Solemn]

You say it doesn't make sense humans have any natural advantage, but the insider implies our culture is only PART of what makes us better researches - which implaies a natural advantage.

Where?
The quote that I used and linked merely indicated that the openness of our society is "part" of what makes us better researchers.
Our societies and cultures are different in many, many ways, with the freer flow of information on humanity's part being just one of them, but possibly the most important one, having been specifically enumerated.
The GURPS sheet does not show a racial penalty to intelligence on the part of the Loroi, nor is such a natural disadvantage on their part implied anywhere else that I can see.

The openness of human society is not the be-all end-all of our distinctions.
It is conceivable, for instance, to have a very open society with little historical esteem for technological innovation, if, say, said innovation is largely inferior to the recovery and study of ancient relics from a technologically superior predecessor race. It is possible to have a legally and interpersonally open society with little regard for the mechanisms by which information is actually most effectively compressed for widespread distribution (the written word) because their decompressed interpersonal language is more comprehensive and expressive and enjoyable for use and considerably more culturally respected, even if it is more ephemeral; this could be argued to be a matter of biology in the case of natural telepaths, but lack of literary traditions seems more of a cultural matter even there to me personally. It is conceivable that one could have an open society which esteems the professions of combat and conflict more highly than those of civil development, and which thus draws the highest achievers to that end rather than to the comparatively unrewarding and gloryless field of, say, biochemistry; in fact, a brain drain of this sort is only possible in an open society in which individuals can define their own role in society and aspire to that of greatest personal advantage. It is conceivable to have an open society in which the understanding of fundamental matters such as mathematics are impeded by cultural factors which have nothing to do with the free flow of information, but with the manner in which the information is recorded and transmitted, such as inefficient and cumbersome mathematical notation; worldwide access to information means little if the information is expressed in a manner that does not appeal to human factors; I feel that if non-Euclidean dimensional systems were the only way math were expressed in human society, even if our mathematicians were very, very good--possibly even better than they are now--society would lose a lot more by alienating the people who are merely fair or adequate at math. But our society would lose that largely because we are so open; were we to close up, then only trained specialists would have to grapple with mathematics that break the fifth postulate in the first place.

I think a lot of these factors mean a lot, but I also think they matter a lot less than the openness or closedness of the societies in question, and that they have less overall impact on a stratified caste-based society since so many of them, such as the personal esteem given to those who make achievements in research and development fields or preferences for the transmission of information mean less when individuals have less choice regarding their duties and career paths. Despising math won't prevent you from learning math if your survival and level of comfort depends entirely on your ability to take up your family's role as a court accountant.

So I think that humanity's cultural advantages are not limited to the open vs. closed society thing, and that this means that it's perfectly legitimate that our historical research advantage be due to cultural development rather than biological factors. But I also think that if humanity has to close up, most of our cultural advantages disappear and some of our advantages become dubious at best (for instance, in a closed, dead-cell-resistance based research model, a new team member amongst the Loroi could be very quickly brought up to speed via telepathy partially thanks to the eidetic memory of the Listel caste whereas a standard human researcher would likely require a much longer period of adjustment) whereas if the Loroi opened up, they would still have many cultural disadvantages that would if anything become far greater than they currently are.

Overall, this means I think the Loroi can no more adopt our cultural model successfully than we can theirs, in the short term at least; but this is because of a tangled net of complicated social and cultural matters rather than because of some natural mental superiority or inferiority.

[Mjolnir]

that the older years are the more productive ones on average

Measured how?

Publications and citations, difficult problems solved, products brought out of the lab...productivity generally peaks around 50, and for those who don't retire or drop out of research, remains fairly steady afterward. For a few fields (like physics and biochemistry), productivity's increasingly skewed toward older years.

and much to gain if things pay off.

Huh. And waaay more to lose if they don´t.

No, less. They've already got an established career and reputation, which isn't going to be ruined by a few papers and experiments that turn out to be a dead end. Someone just starting their career will be getting into a bad position if they take excessive risks and end up with their only record being one of failure. Though there's an additional factor for us short-lived humans in that approaching retirement eases some of that pressure as well.

And they've generally developed a deeper understanding of the various flaws of failed approaches

Or they just had luck. Two or three times in a row, just enough to bring them in position.

Those who got lucky two or three times early on are not destined for long and productive careers.

or to have encountered various techniques applicable to solving a problem.

You won´t believe how good some people are at ignoring them.
I speak with experience - 80% of our time at the A380 project was simply wasted with constant fighting against the french dimwits. On all fields, technically, organization, human resources and so on and so on.

You mistake a personal anecdote for data. And regardless of how well supported it is, your grudge against French engineers/managers/whatever isn't even relevant to the issue at hand.

Fred Hoyle would just learn to admit he was wrong or become known as a failure. His major success with nucleosynthesis would not let him hold physics hostage.

FH was never in a position to cripple progress.
But that is due to our open society.
Now look at the closed society of the Loroi. ;)

They don't prize academics as a general rule, but little has been shown about how the Listel and related civilian professions interact with each other. Their telepathic communication may actually lead to more accurate judgement of capabilities and fewer instances of a researcher sticking to an untenable position, trying to substitute authority for knowledge, etc.

So much for the field of theoretics, now let´s have a look on the practical side. e.g. industry and technical developement. There´s a whole instrumentarium of tools perfect for crippling progress: Patents, badly designed laws, myriads of lawyers eager to profit from that quarrel and much muuuch more.

Again...completely unrelated to the subject at hand.

Now imagine this in a caste-society, with every caste defending their grounds. Tempo already stated that they have a history of endless bloodshed - it´s easy to imagine how bloodshed shifted to business.

I really don't see it naturally tending to be any worse than our own divisions into specialized fields, schools, nationalities, etc, or particularly related to age.

[TrashMan]

Overall, this means I think the Loroi can no more adopt our cultural model successfully than we can theirs, in the short term at least; but this is because of a tangled net of complicated social and cultural matters rather than because of some natural mental superiority or inferiority.

So you agree Lroi are biologicly superior in every way?
And the only advantage we have is cultural and the Loroi CAN adopt it (even if it takes time)?

[Solemn]

So you agree Lroi are biologicly superior in every way?
And the only advantage we have is cultural and the Loroi CAN adopt it (even if it takes time)?

I did not say that Loroi are biologically superior in every way, and such statements are manifestly untrue. Loroi do not receive racial bonuses to strength, dexterity, intelligence, etc. on their GURPS sheets.

When you say "takes time," I believe what you mean is "would need to take a time machine so the Loroi can rebuild the entire basis of their civilization from scratch." Their warrior caste isn't going anywhere so long as the current Loroi civilization continues. Their preference for telepathic communication over written word seems essentially unalterable thanks to the eidetic memory of the Listel caste. Even their math system is by this time so ingrained into so many of the technologies by which their civilization is governed and upon which they rest that it, too is, in the words of various politicians, "too big to fail."

In my view, culture and history aren't nearly such adjustable, malleable, controllable things as a statement like yours suggests.

[Trantor]

that the older years are the more productive ones on average

Measured how?

Publications and citations, difficult problems solved, products brought out of the lab...productivity generally peaks around 50, and for those who don't retire or drop out of research, remains fairly steady afterward. For a few fields (like physics and biochemistry), productivity's increasingly skewed toward older years.

Url?

and much to gain if things pay off.

Huh. And waaay more to lose if they don´t.

No, less. They've already got an established career and reputation, which isn't going to be ruined by a few papers and experiments that turn out to be a dead end.

In a pink-fluffy-perfect world. In our world there are people just waiting for you to make a mistake.
Ok, it depends on the approach and on the interpretation of the result, but still. If you waste dozens of millions on an experiment, and the results are unexpected, disappointing and hard to interpret you´ll get stuck.

Someone just starting their career will be getting into a bad position if they take excessive risks and end up with their only record being one of failure.

Like above, it depends. With an open approach and some good interpretation of the results it must not be a career-stopper. (In our world it will likely be, though)

And they've generally developed a deeper understanding of the various flaws of failed approaches

Or they just had luck. Two or three times in a row, just enough to bring them in position.

Those who got lucky two or three times early on are not destined for long and productive careers.

But are in position to cripple progress for at least a while. Add soft-skills and net-working, and such brake pads remain in position for long enough to cause serious damage.
Peter-principle, e.g..

or to have encountered various techniques applicable to solving a problem.

You won´t believe how good some people are at ignoring them.
I speak with experience - 80% of our time at the A380 project was simply wasted with constant fighting against the french dimwits. On all fields, technically, organization, human resources and so on and so on.

You mistake a personal anecdote for data.

Thanks for the LOL!

You know, after some years the constant flow of absurd and grotesque "anecdotes" is called "practical experience".
That seems to be something you obviously lack in, btw.

They don't prize academics as a general rule, but little has been shown about how the Listel and related civilian professions interact with each other. Their telepathic communication may actually lead to more accurate judgement of capabilities and fewer instances of a researcher sticking to an untenable position, trying to substitute authority for knowledge, etc.

Telepathic communication != open communication.

Again...completely unrelated to the subject at hand.

The subject is progress and it´s cultural background, and i´m sure i am pretty Ontopic.

And regardless of how well supported it is, your grudge against French engineers/managers/whatever isn't even relevant to the issue at hand.

They´re a perfect example how progress is crippled by exponents of a society that has already become decadent a long time ago.
Cultural background, see above.
(And they´re all the same, really, acting like the borg-collective. You will find no such errative behaviour in, let´s say, England. Every time we had questions, e.g. the Rolls-Royce-guys answered them instantly and accurate. A total contrast, in Toulouse there were french managers who speak german fluently, perfectly and dialect-free. But they REFUSED to speak so to us, so our company (subcontractor) had to hire somebody for translations. WTF?)

Now imagine this in a caste-society, with every caste defending their grounds. Tempo already stated that they have a history of endless bloodshed - it´s easy to imagine how bloodshed shifted to business.

I really don't see it naturally tending to be any worse than our own divisions into specialized fields, schools, nationalities, etc, or particularly related to age.

Progress is based on competing ideas. A caste-system naturally has no demand for change, they want to stay where they are.
But history is full of examples of societys steamrollerd by their quicker neighbours.
The patterns are always the same, humans or not.

[TrashMan]

So you agree Lroi are biologicly superior in every way?
And the only advantage we have is cultural and the Loroi CAN adopt it (even if it takes time)?

I did not say that Loroi are biologically superior in every way, and such statements are manifestly untrue. Loroi do not receive racial bonuses to strength, dexterity, intelligence, etc. on their GURPS sheets.

GURPS sheets are nothing but a simplification. a RPG system.
I'm talking astrictly about background fluff.

In my view, culture and history aren't nearly such adjustable, malleable, controllable things as a statement like yours suggests.

Since humantiy produced huders of different cultures and tehy are ian constant state of flux... I really don't see what's preventing Loroi from changing. Change is inevitable.

[Arioch]

comment Arioch?

I think that having long-lived researchers can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, your geniuses can give you a few more lifetimes' worth of productivity... but on the other hand, you give your quacks and zeroes the same. I don't think that innovation is limited to the young, but I do have the impression that many "researchers" become "professors" instead... dispensers of the truth rather than seekers of the truth. They become a sort of scientific clergy, more interested in the consistency and beauty of the answers they give than with their accuracy. The Loroi certainly lean toward this end of the spectrum, viewing science more as the dispensing of doctrine than as a never-ending pursuit of knowledge.

It's worth pointing out, though, that Loroi aren't that much longer-lived than Humans in 2160. Loroi longevity is natural, but medical science (even such as Humans have) can extend lives substantially. But this is not really germane to the story.

Having telepathy is also a mixed bag. It can allow very close communication within a local group of scientists, but reliance on telepathy deters communication with more distant groups and the community at large. The Loroi are very good at solving specific problems within a discipline (as in producing the Pulse Cannon from the Historian Plasma Focus example in just a few years), but not as good at the interdisciplinary collaboration that often produces true innovation (the Loroi have come up with very few new technologies on their own without an example to follow).

Eidetic memory is necessary for a telepathic research system, because it allows for externalization of information without having to use physical media which the Loroi dislike. However, human researchers externalize information with writing and computers very well, so I'm not sure this is an advantage on balance.

GURPS sheets are nothing but a simplification. a RPG system. I'm talking astrictly about background fluff.

A typical individual Loroi is not any smarter, stronger or faster (in any meaningful way) than a typical individual Human.

[Solemn]

Since humantiy produced huders of different cultures and tehy are ian constant state of flux... I really don't see what's preventing Loroi from changing. Change is inevitable.

Okay, I'll try to explain through a metaphor.

There are dozens of separately-evolved forms of eye known to biology. Dozens. There is speculation that there are actually hundreds. All are based on similar principles and most on similar biochemistry, but are distinct enough that we pretty much know that they came about separately. All biological systems are in a constant state of flux, as a natural result of DNA and RNA being imperfect at replication and expression and maintenance.

There are serious structural and organizational differences between eyes, and different needs that they suit. The chemicals within and most basic principles behind eyes are often similar, but the construction is fairly distinct.

Not only are eyes adapted to different purposes, but some eyes are better and more efficient than others towards the same purpose.

Let's say there's one form of eye that emerged in one species, and a very different form of eye that emerged in another species that fulfills a near-identical evolutionary niche, and let's say this niche is very strongly vision-dependent. Let's say the eyes of one species are very, very differently constructed than the other, with key components made and placed in very different ways, and one type is better suited to the same task than the other.

The species with inferior eyes might grow larger eyes, might weed out some inefficiencies in how well they make their form of eye, might even grow more eyes. But they are cosmically unlikely to transition from their form of eyes to that of the other species, because in the steps in between, their eyes would become useless. And then they would die.

Mutations happen all the time and many of the same genes would be present in the first place and evolution is inevitable and the individuals on the road to growing superior vision would all die because the individual steps that are necessary to take the species from the inferior eye structure to the superior one are individually terribly, terribly maladaptive, and with a large network of genes that would have to be altered rather than one or two alleles to mutate, each individual allele's Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium would not shift in favor of the superior eye within a reasonable timeframe, and by reasonable timeframe I am talking about a reasonable geological timeframe.

Social structures can be consciously manipulated and evolutionary structures cannot, but, even though we are not talking about a vision-based species going blind for several million years, we are still (in my opinion) talking about retarding research for thousands of years while working out the kinks in the transition states between the one paradigm and the other, during which the species is made much more vulnerable to their natural enemies. If a transition state is sufficiently expensive or sufficiently harmful then a transition will not be made, and so far as I can tell we are in fact talking about a sufficiently painful transition here.

The Loroi have adapted to their research paradigm. As I have said, various ways in which they have adapted, such as eidetic memory and telepathy, become maladaptive baggage if they start to make the transition. They also have few if any adaptations for problems that could arise within the human research paradigm, since theirs is so different and has such different roots.

Change is inevitable. Optimization is natural. And perhaps in several thousand years, after the Loroi have socially adopted many, many of humanity's cultural traits--some of which will probably appear to have absolutely nothing to do with our historical rate of technological development--and the Loroi government, society, and entire civilization have ceased to bear meaningful similarity to their current form, the intermediate steps between humanity's scientific paradigm and that of the Loroi will be sufficiently painless to allow them to shift to our model. But by then the game will already be over and human civilization will already have won, lost, or left. So it doesn't seem a particularly pertinent point to consider.

[088]

Is submission not preferable to extinction?

No... I don't think so..
In most Scifi almost every incarnation of Humanity chose annihilation over enslavement.
Its kind of hard-wired into us at least in most places.

And besides those aren't really the only options. If pressed hard enough we could totally pull a Battlestar Galactica and run to the other side of the galaxy.
or go a bit slower since i don't think anyone in the Outsider universe would chase us very far. Build a few clone factories/gene banks hide them in some asteroids to re settle planets if we have to. Also why not just build a few Von neuman probes? which are self replicating AI probes/ships just let them loose with the simple commands of
1. reproduce
2. scout nearby system to determine enemy force composition
3. don't attack without massively superior numbers
4. once numerical superiority is achieved choose random nearby star system and attack en mass.
5. destroy anything not bearing a human IFF
6. don't destroy anything bearing a human IFF
you could even give them orders to not destroy planets themselves, just for the purpose of trapping the population not destroying them. then after the machines have ravaged the loroi/Umiak/everyone else, we return from self imposed exile and enjoy ourselves as we pick over the carcasses of there empires at will.

Marcus Antonius: "Cry "Havoc!" and let slip the dogs of war"
Dessert Punk: "even great men know when to run like a little bi@#$"