Arioch wrote:Absalom wrote:It's much the same as FTL: nifty, but not commercially relevant.
The ability to travel to other star systems,
Scientifically interesting, commercially inconsequential. Probably my setting would realistically have had some sort of "dot com bubble" early on with the technology, but there was little economic use for it (moving dangerous research projects further away, some possibility of science, etc.), and it was slow (you take a shortcut, but it isn't
that short, it's at least a few days to months to get to Proxima Centauri; I never settled on a speed, but it's far from instantaneous, and even then your initial velocity and proximity to masses along your course has an effect on your speed AND course... gravity leaks, after all). There were some outposts (e.g. several at the Centauri triad), probably some random long-distance missions, a few (mostly failed) attempts by neo-"pilgrims" to start a colony somewhere far from Sol system and it's civilization, major military ships would be capable in case of need for quick reaction, but without something spectacular (remember, we can create most or all of the valuable gems industrially, dragging gold out of a gravity well is unlikely to be cheaper than separating it from the several million tons of rock you used for your latest super-habitat, etc.), there just isn't much economic reason for FTL.
Arioch wrote:get access to resources that are scarce or nonexistent on Earth...
Earth is most lacking in light elements, due to the creation of the Moon. The rest either requires very energetic events (e.g. supernovas), is accessible enough in asteroids, is light stuff that can be trivially gotten from gas giants and comets, requires discovering that:
1) it exists, and
2) it exists in star system Y, at concentrations worth bothering with, in which case:
it's likely to be worthwhile to just mine it with a small outpost and send it elsewhere, rather than try to stick some huge population out wherever.
Arioch wrote:meet alien civilizations,
I never spent the effort to decide how large an area humanity spread out over after the apocalypse, but even then it was presumably a pretty small area, within a sparsely inhabited universe. Space is big, and I intended 0 subtlety about the matter. "second age" and "third age" settings presumably would have aliens (certainly they wouldn't have
that rare of FTL), but those are somewhat vague, amorphous, derived settings, and if any aliens in the local region were serious about expanding, then we in the real world would presumably be a recurring contact of theirs, which I personally doubt. Besides, one of the "first age" post-diaspora populations managed to either transfer to, or outright create, another universe (I never decided which, since the only trace would be inexplicable leftovers), something which might (it's obviously too early to say "yes" or "no") be possible in the real world, and presumably removes all threat of equivalent competition, so...
Arioch wrote:learn from them and trade with them...
Only valuable if it's cheaper (or at least close enough) than buying locally. Pre-apocalypse, the vast majority of the population lived off-Earth, but the population that lived outside of Sol-system was miniscule for two reinforcing reasons:
1) It's hard to say no to that economic base,
2) It's hard to say yes to that lack of economic base.
Besides, my FTL required constant energy inputs to "hover" in jump/hyper/whatever -space. Output rises with surface area while capacity rises with volume, so it's not like it couldn't be improved, but if you don't have any justification for that, then you don't build the massive miles-on-a-side ships, or at least don't equip them with the over-priced and
never used (for energy reasons) FTL drives.
Arioch wrote:set up human colonies throughout the galaxy to increase the number of humans (and therefore customers and trading partners) exponentially...
Only justified if it's cheaper doing it like this than to do it where you already are... which in my setting, it isn't. In my setting, you can source most things locally (you have a habitat, where you can grow things, and various auto-factories are standard equipment) so there's relatively little need for fast turn-around: most shipping is bulk, even populations (via cyclers, since it's, you know,
affordable), so there's just not much economic space for rush-shipping.
Even in Outsider, you've said that something around 80-90% of the human population is still in the Sol system. And this is with a sort-of kind-of pulp setting.
Arioch wrote:would not these things qualify as being commercially relevant?
Either unachievable with the available technology (traveling long distances cheaply), unachievable due to lack of known sources for said things (aliens, quark matter, whatever), or achievable just as easily without leaving the system (just about any practical materials: if magnetic monopole material were common, it would likely be in Sol system too).
In short, I just don't assume an
exciting universe, especially in the absence of the "second tier" of the relevant FTL technology. "Second age"? Yeah, plenty of FTL travel, but you also have large populations moving to uninhabited systems because a local barren-world would be just
perfect for a implausibly-large-volume bio-reactor, given that you have a lifeless
world that they can terraform without dealing with competition; and a planet that got roasted for quite some time by the
pulsar that it orbited, leaving goodness knows what types of heavy elements to mine; and the simple fact that the several-hundred years of the regional "we'll maintain FTL contact because near destruction turned every society slightly paranoid" diplomatic missions intentionally dumping small amounts of terraforming material in worthwhile planets produced plenty of small oases that didn't exist when the area was first settled.
fredgiblet wrote:Absalom wrote:It's much the same as FTL: nifty, but not commercially relevant.
In addition to Arioch's points FTL is critical to the long-term survival of our species, eventually
something is going to happen to Earth, whether it's an ecological collapse, asteroid strike or the sun going into crazy mode and crisping us all, whether it takes 100 years or a million years, sooner or later Earth will be a graveyard.
FTL isn't a luxury, it's necessity.
I'm with projekcja on this one. I wasn't assuming that Earth (and maybe the other planets) held the majority of Humans in Sol system, and I was assuming very-long-term viable space habitats, so yes, FTL is a luxury in my setting (and, appropriately, used for fast transport, etc.). For that matter, FTL in the real world would be a luxury if we had it, as it would almost be guaranteed to be very expensive due to energy requirements (you either have to create or simulate the negative matter to hold open the wormhole, or breach space-time, or...).
Honestly, long-term survival of the species (or rather descendants) depends on the ability to create "fresh" low-entropy compatible universes, but not on FTL. For everything else, long-term living in space is enough. This is a subject where "think like a human" is the wrong stance, and "think like an anthropomorphized civilization" is the right stance. Forget about our lifetimes, look at the three-century perspective at a minimum. If we started working on cheap spacelift in a serious way today, then I expect that in three centuries time we'd have major habitation areas at least as far away as Saturn, at least a few out around Pluto, and at least one mission at least under construction to head towards Proxima Centauri.
icekatze wrote:A lot of people tend to anthropomorphize animals, machines, and even inanimate objects sometimes. (Wiiiilson!) And so I would suspect that uplifting animals would be a thing at some point in the future, as it seems like the next logical (or psychological) step of that anthropomorpization. However, in order for that to happen, the technology probably has to develop to a point where the input cost is very low. If the only people who can pull it off are giant corporations, they're going to be looking at their bottom line. If anyone with a modest budget and a "Mr. DNA," can do it, then I suspect that special interests, such as environmental and animal rights groups, will make it happen.
Depends on the environmentalists and animal rights groups in question. A number would presumably shy away due to the "sacredness of nature". I think that the "crazy pet owner" type is likely to be the only major "greenie" source of such actions.
icekatze wrote:Doesn't sound like thats the case with the tech level in Outsider at the moment though.
True.
projekcja wrote:1) Construct colonies in space. We do not need earth-like planets to live on, just build big closed structures in space, with atmospheres and agriculture in them (using redesigned plantlife). Build colonies on asteroids, on moons etc. The amount of food we could eventually grow on earth is ultimately limited by the amount of sunlight hitting it. In space, I expect we'd eventually far exceed that limit, and by this point, the people living on earth may be a minority.
Indeed. O'Neill had his students assume steel and similar materials that were available then. We're working on carbon nanotubes capable of building a hanging-rope space elevator today. As far as I know, small Ringworlds might be achievable with that. I personally wouldn't want to build a open-topped station even if I could make it work, but an enclosed design at the planet-side of an appropriate tether with all of it's airlocks and other utilities coming in from the "bottom" should do the job fairly well: all of the outgassing will tend to fall to the planet, where you can just retrieve it.