"Earth should be about HERE..."

[Jeremy]

However, once the decision was made to make contact, attempting to establish diplomatic relations while somehow keeping your nation's location a secret doesn't make any sense to me. That's going to be pretty much the first question they ask, and if you refuse to answer it, I don't see negotiations going much farther than that.

I don't see the point of negotiating at all for either the Loroi or Umiak. Humans are a low-tech species with a small territory, no outstanding resources, and a pitifully small military that could be taken down by a token force (if that). They overpower humanity so completely that the humans have no leverage and nothing substantial to offer. Why would they bother even humoring us?

[QuakeIV]

Well thats kindof ridiculous too, there is plenty of room between peer level superpower and being treated like the sentinelese. Humanity is a smaller and lower tech but clearly civilized society.

[Arioch]

However, once the decision was made to make contact, attempting to establish diplomatic relations while somehow keeping your nation's location a secret doesn't make any sense to me. That's going to be pretty much the first question they ask, and if you refuse to answer it, I don't see negotiations going much farther than that.

I don't see the point of negotiating at all for either the Loroi or Umiak. Humans are a low-tech species with a small territory, no outstanding resources, and a pitifully small military that could be taken down by a token force (if that). They overpower humanity so completely that the humans have no leverage and nothing substantial to offer. Why would they bother even humoring us?

If Humanity was so powerful that Alex could just roll up, flash his HFY card and everyone bowed to him, then that wouldn't make for much of an obstacle for the protagonist to overcome. (Though in that case, Humanity probably wouldn't need to come begging for an alliance in the first place.)

If you're talking about the decision to send the contact mission: the decision-makers for Humanity didn't know much detail about the tech advantage or the size advantage of the combatants; they just knew is was "higher" and "bigger." Hence Alex's dismay on seeing how large SG51 was.

[D-503]

I don't think automation helps you much here... we're talking about sensor arrays with the diameter of a planet that have to be physically pointed at the target.

Hm, from our todays tech level i´d propose an array of satellites, in size/dimensions comparable to our planned LISA and sort of (half?) omnidirectional.
With futures´ tech level imho a piece of cake.

If the Loroi or Umiak (or anyone else) were really curious about whether there are unknown aliens hiding in a particular area, they could just send ships to explore the area.

Fair point.

I don't think SETI observation programs are something they would spend a lot of resources on.

Probably no need for lot´s of resources. Maybe some additional sensors "piggyback" could do.

But let´s not get into unnecessary detail, i don´t want to keep you from working on new pages.


..

Not that nuclear weapons are a small event per se, but i think there is a failure to understand how far a lightyear is here (or maybe just erroneous back of the envelope sensor sensitivity calculations)

I think i have a good grasp about space´ distances. 200ly is a lot, not only for us humans today.
In galactic terms though it´s still neighbourhood.


..

I don't see the point of negotiating at all for either the Loroi or Umiak. Humans are a low-tech species with a small territory, no outstanding resources, and a pitifully small military that could be taken down by a token force (if that). They overpower humanity so completely that the humans have no leverage and nothing substantial to offer. Why would they bother even humoring us?

There is (at least) one point: We´re "invisible" to the Loroi. It definitely cannot be in their interest to let us side with the Umiak, it would be their end.
It´s not a point of what we can "offer", it´s a point of preventing the enemy getting a lethal advantage.

And even if we´re not on par with their military power it is simply not possible to "wipe us out" in one swipe, since we´re also a space-faring species right now - there will be survivors, very valuable assests for the Umiak.

I´m pretty sure at least the Loroi figured that out by now.

[Gudo]

I mean, has it really? Alex isn't convinced. We know that information can flow at least one way, maybe it can flow both ways and the Loroi aren't showing their hand.

Doesn't mean you take a chance.

Agree. He should be extremely careful.

There is (at least) one point: We´re "invisible" to the Loroi.

We don't know that. In fact, we have very good reason to suspect that's not the case: the Loroi "dream" Alex found himself in on pages 185 through page 191. The "dreamer" was clearly responding to Alex's actions. This can only mean that they not only able to perceive his presence, but also specific thoughts.

I don't see the point of negotiating at all for either the Loroi or Umiak. Humans are a low-tech species with a small territory, no outstanding resources, and a pitifully small military that could be taken down by a token force (if that). They overpower humanity so completely that the humans have no leverage and nothing substantial to offer. Why would they bother even humoring us?

I think it's clear that humanity's chief value to the Loroi is their implications for internal political affairs. It's a tale as old as time, and the common theme of the meeting between the old world and the new: established factions think they can somehow use strange newcomers to gain leverage over their old rivals. It's the only reason why Plymouth Colony survived it's first year.

Consider the first thing Alex learns about the Loroi government, on page 108.

I would like to again express my sincere regrets for the political and military difficulties that lead to your being held in isolation. I can say only that it was necessary for your own safety.

Tell me, what kind of state must take steps to protect ambassadors it recognizes from it's own military? Dis-unified ones. Deeply, deeply dis-unified ones. That comment, and the scene that plays out on the Tempest's bridge on page 65 also tells us something else: the mere existence of humans is destabilizing.

You cannot pretend to ignore the glorious implications of this contact! The little brother stands before you as living proof of the false-hoods the Loroi have been spreading for a thousand...

Do not let Mozin's assertions trouble you Captain Jardin. The Barsam are trusted allies, but they have their own agenda, and would not heisitate to exploit you for their own ends.

(Tempo says as if she's not doing the same.)

Add in the comments offered by the Historians, and Loroi Union seems just as stable as the Loroi's own government. The Loroi probably don't need to ask Lenin what happens when a destabilizing political force is introduced into a shaky alliance and oligarchy already under pressure from existential war. But the Loroi put Alex on a shuttle, not out an air lock. They've clearly identified value and it's not human technology (which they've probably already determined from debris is inferior to their own) and it's not their position or numbers or production (which are totally unknown when the decision is made to declare Alex as ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary.)

I'm gonna level with you; if I were the human negotiator, I would be demanding privileges instead of offering concessions.

By everything that Alex has witnessed, the Loroi are on the weaker side of the war. They're being drowned by enemy production; Stillstorm can't be replaced nearly as efficiently as a squadron of super-heavies can. Their enemy has clearly developed new technology that mitigates the Loroi's largest advantage, permitting new tactics that really let the enemy put those production numbers to good use. And humans will know from their own history that their destabilizing presence will not be an aid to the war effort. They'll be able to see clearly that they're being used even if the "for what" isn't clear. Remember, signing with the wrong side is a death sentence. If the Loroi aren't offering concessions, then the humans won't be jumping on their sinking ship.

[D-503]

There is (at least) one point: We´re "invisible" to the Loroi.

We don't know that.

That´s what Tempo said on p66.

In fact, we have very good reason to suspect that's not the case: the Loroi "dream" Alex found himself in on pages 185 through page 191. The "dreamer" was clearly responding to Alex's actions. This can only mean that they not only able to perceive his presence, but also specific thoughts.

I think the dream is just a dream. He gained enough information about Seren and has learned about this sort of conflicts (in school or media) before that his brain was able to make up a nightmarish story. That´s what brains do in sleep - reflecting (recent) events. I myself have lively nightmares quite often.

[Gudo]

There is (at least) one point: We´re "invisible" to the Loroi.

We don't know that.

That´s what Tempo said on p66.

I mean, that's what she would say if she wanted to deceive Alex. I'm not saying she is lying, I'm saying we don't know. Don't forget, both the Barsam and the Historians say the Loroi can't be trusted, and those nations are much more familiar with the Loroi than we are.

(What a rock-steady alliance, when the first thing all existing members say to prospective member is that none of the other members can be trusted.)

I think the dream is just a dream. He gained enough information about Seren and has learned about this sort of conflicts (in school or media) before that his brain was able to make up a nightmarish story. That´s what brains do in sleep - reflecting (recent) events. I myself have lively nightmares quite often.

Alex isn't convinced.

That nightmare of a ruined Loroi world and marauding "hard-troops..." that was no simple imagining of an ensign's trouble psyche. Somebody was feeding me those images, and it seemed an awfully convenient picture to paint for someone choosing sides..."

[D-503]

We don't know that.

That´s what Tempo said on p66.

I mean, that's what she would say if she wanted to deceive Alex.

Hm. Deceit? What for?
IMHO only necessary if they try to cover up _their_ assault on the Bellarmine when it entered the system, _IF_ it was them.
But i think the Loroi actually didn´t "see" the humans coming.
I think it must have been somebody else who fired at them.

I stick with my theory. But i´d also be pleased if we see some (preferably cool!) story-twists.

I'm not saying she is lying, I'm saying we don't know. Don't forget, both the Barsam and the Historians say the Loroi can't be trusted, and those nations are much more familiar with the Loroi than we are.

(What a rock-steady alliance, when the first thing all existing members say to prospective member is that none of the other members can be trusted.)

Yep.

Alex isn't convinced.

That nightmare of a ruined Loroi world and marauding "hard-troops..." that was no simple imagining of an ensign's trouble psyche. Somebody was feeding me those images, and it seemed an awfully convenient picture to paint for someone choosing sides..."

This is imho still in line with his own brain playing tricks on him.

Time will tell. I hope i´ll live long enough to see the end of the story.

[Jagged]

I would just add that we don't know how vague or exact Alex was being when he said "about here"

Wiggling your finger across a few hundred parsecs!

[projekcja]

The density of stars in our vicinity is about 0.004 stars per cubic light year, the distance there is about 200 ly, so if the map displayed the stars in a 200x200x200 cube between us and Seren, it would show about 32,000 stars. Imagine Alex wiggling his finger at that....

[Demarquis]

It would be hilarious if it turned out that Alex had been lying (and it would completely resolve this whole debate). I think the Loroi could find Earth pretty easily if they wanted to--they don't need coherent radio signals, just optical evidence of a planet with a biological and industrial markers in it's atmosphere. But Jeremy is right, why take chances? Had I been Emperor of Earth I would have sent out stealth scouts to find the Loroi and the Umiak and collect as much intel as possible without being seen--pretty sure that is what would have happened in real life.

None of which prevents me from greatly enjoying the story. The plot would end up being exactly the same either way, so...

[Arioch]

What are "stealth scouts" exactly? Starships in Outsider are not stealthy.

[Demarquis]

They are on the order of millions of miles. You cruise to the outermost regions of frontier systems, and use passive sensors and small probes to spy on the aliens while they go about their tasks. "Stealth" is just a euphemism for "Distance divided by energy radiated".

[QuakeIV]

Seems like the issue might once again be that the gigantic technological differential will not favor that. I guess with no evidence that if the goal is to minimally confirm a system is populated and then back off that would be viable? At least that level of exploration would strongly favor the sneaking party.

[Demarquis]

That's how it turned out, yes. As I said, it has no impact on the actual plot. Still, Earth had to try.

[QuakeIV]

In fairness to your idea they seemed to want to be found.

[Arioch]

Well, the TCA didn't know exactly where the Loroi systems were, so it would be hard to get close without stumbling across an outpost or a ship and being spotted. Even if they could manage to avoid detection, I'm not sure what you'd learn by sitting out in no-man's land and observing EM signals from other star systems. You'd be 20-30 light years away at a minimum from any inhabited system, and whatever data you collected (if any -- it's not as if the Loroi have television broadcasts you can watch) would be from before the war even started.

[Demarquis]

I was thinking more in system. I assume that there is a way to "System hop" while deliberately is a landing at the outermost periphery, at which point it would be "Drive and all non essential systems off." A lot can be learned, even from the local equivalent of the Kuiper Belt.

[Arioch]

I was thinking more in system. I assume that there is a way to "System hop" while deliberately is a landing at the outermost periphery, at which point it would be "Drive and all non essential systems off." A lot can be learned, even from the local equivalent of the Kuiper Belt.

Exit from jump is a very "noisy" event... the energy from the spacetime disruption is released as a bright, characteristic flash of light. Anyone in the system (who's not preoccupied with fighting) will notice it, and any inhabited system will have detectors looking specifically for this signature.

[Krulle]

Further, the Humans had to assume that the Loroi telepathy might detect them one the Humans jump in-system.

Although I don't know how much of this knowledge is known to non-frontier parties.


Nobody could've assumed, that the Humans would be telepathically inert.