page 195: bad enough

[Dan Wyatt]

Given the degree of strategic surprise the bugs achieved, I personally think they would probably be most interested in preparing to move on to the next system as quickly as possible. They seem to be in a position where they could gain a lot from pressing as far as they can as quickly as they can before the loroi manage to put together a counterattack.

The logistic train would be an issue, SG51 would hunt them down.

[Werra]

Khalkha divisions (p. 88) carry a large amount of provisions just for that reason.

[Krulle]

Given the degree of strategic surprise the bugs achieved, I personally think they would probably be most interested in preparing to move on to the next system as quickly as possible. They seem to be in a position where they could gain a lot from pressing as far as they can as quickly as they can before the loroi manage to put together a counterattack.

And especially before the jump points and deep jump points are being suppressed.

But as Werra pointed out, the Umiak are doing exactly that apparently, as noticed by Alex, confirmed by Beryl,...

[gaerzi]

That's why they're going outside. To paddle.

Fireblade can actually do that, she's psychokinetic. And, likewise...

"Would it help if I got out and pushed?" ~ Princess Leia Organa

It would actually help, if she went through a training montage with Yoda first!

[dragoongfa]

Khalkha divisions (p. 88) carry a large amount of provisions just for that reason.

In military logistics there is a law of diminishing returns in regards to the amount of supplies and consumables a unit carries, the issue is a full fledged chapter in Sun Tzu's art of war even. To cut a long point short the more supplies you carry with you while marching the more equipment and manpower you will need to carry them with. The more equipment and manpower, the more supplies will be consumed on the march. One has to carefully plan ahead and organize the logistics requirements and the logistics train at the rear lines in order to properly supply all forces without there being needless waste while still having enough left for an emergency.

The Khalka divisions should have enough supplies on them to fulfill their objectives with some reserves left for emergencies. To do the necessary follow on campaign they will need to organize and safeguard the logistics chain to the front. For that they will need to set up a supply hub, supply outposts and supply convoys to feed their warmachine. All these are undoubtedly on the move at the time of this page.

Depending on the topical realities the Umiak will blockade Azimol and install a central supply hub a couple of jumps after it (the supply hub being a single jump away from a point of resistance is a big no-no). Taking out Azimol's citadel would require forces that the Umiak are unwilling to currently devote to and as such they will starve it as they pursue other objectives.

The protection of the supply trains to and from the new supply hub is probably the reason as to why the ambush at Naam was planned and carried out. Even if ALL of the Umiak fleets become hidden from farsense the raiders were still a threat to the supply convoys. If the various Strike Group raiders were left as is then they would be able to cause disruption even if they couldn't accurately track their targets with Farsense, with patrol areas and a system of cheap picket and messenger ships they should be able to strike at the convoys at will. Would require more effort but it is easily doable.

This doesn't mean that the Umiak Lotai is 'useless', quite the contrary; it denies the Loroi the supreme advantage of always being able to concentrate their forces in areas that are in danger ahead of their enemy's arrival to said area in danger. It allows them to once again achieve strategic surprise and land decisive hits that could allow them to break the stalemate.

[asaenvolk]

Can Farsense detect AI? And would the Umiak play with fire to win?

[dragoongfa]

That's one of the theories going around, telepathic sensing only works on organic species so that is a hole that could be exploited. The issue however is that the Umiak aren't there yet technologically, their tech level requires crew to run their ships properly, to provide its constant maintenance and do damage control.

Only the Historians are able to field automatic ships but their warships still have living breathing crew aboard in order to fill in the roles that their advanced AI constructs cannot.

[QuakeIV]

In terms of loroi ships going behind enemy lines and severing the line of supply, I personally consider that part of preparing to move on to the next system. If you advance without any hope of that advance meaning anything due to inadequate security backing it up and covering said line of advance, then its a bit pointless.

It would be fair to say that the bugs might overextend, or misjudge the amount of force required, but generally in modern military practice you have a pretty good idea of what will be required to get the job done and are screwing up if you ignore the calculated requirements to conduct the advance.

e: And indeed the tactical screen thingy does show ships staying behind, so I am not saying that the bugs aren't doing that.

[asaenvolk]

Not there yet? I dono, while it might seam inconvenient, having a fully computer run AI ship doesn't seam all THAT advanced, especially if its not for the long hall, and the Umiak seam to have a lot of impenitence to develop the tech. Now being able to develop such technology SAFELY, that may be different.

[dragoongfa]

Not there yet? I dono, while it might seam inconvenient, having a fully computer run AI ship doesn't seam all THAT advanced, especially if its not for the long hall, and the Umiak seam to have a lot of impenitence to develop the tech. Now being able to develop such technology SAFELY, that may be different.

It's not just the A.I. giving the necessary commands to run the ship but also making sure that the ship itself runs properly through proper maintenance procedures and damage control. There is no way that a machine is able to do all this properly without being of an organic nature itself.

Then there is the whole electronic warfare angle; a 'smart' weapon able to fight in its own will never be 'smart' enough to second guess its orders when those orders suddenly tell it to make an 180 and start blasting at its former friends current hostiles.

[asaenvolk]

Well a ship with a few mobile repair and independent monitoring robots could probably do it. For the most part, yes, a ship could fly and maintain itself, at least for some time, were really not all that far away from such abilities ourselves. When not flying in combat or doing repair, its not that much different than doing operator work, the majority of which is done or at least CAN be done autonomously.

But there are many other advantages, such as no need for life support, one of the bulkiest and most resource consuming systems. This would give the ships considerably more room for fuel, for long circuitous routs to a battle field, and the machine like precision to arrive just when planed.

As for repair work, they might have a few pre-combatant repair parts, the ships would likely be intended for disposability after the push. Such ships would not be meant to last, but be a one to two use hammer. This works well with the Umiak swarm and disposable swarm tactics. Its also minimizes the threat of electronic warfare, so even if one or three get hacked (which in a combat situation with little to no ability for the enemy to pre-hack a system is unlikely), and even then really only the Historians have a chance, something rarely seen on the battle field. EW, even in this case is mitigated by the sheer volume of ships.

The real threat is with an adaptive AI growing in a direction you didn't want, but even then, that would likely take time, and that would be something most of these ships would not really have.

[Jagged]

While I don't think the Umiak are using AI, I would not disregard the possibility. They seem happy to throw resources at the enemy, so it may not matter much to them that any machine controlled ship eventually breaks and is lost.
It just has to jump along a planned route and shoot at anything not Umiak until it can't do it any more.

[Arioch]

It's really not wise to throw automated vessels at an enemy with allies who are known to be reeeeeaally good at hacking.

[asaenvolk]

Depends, but the Historians don't field battle often, and if you stay away from the parts of the war zone where they are likely to be (ie near their border), then such a threat is severely minimized for potentially a lot of gain. So while it might not work as a long term stagey, as a short term one its not a bad plan, also don't build the ships to last THAT long, really 1 or 2 battles, 3 at most.

Also, are the Historians really the allies of the Loroi? because they kind of barely act like it.

[grixit]

Given the degree of strategic surprise the bugs achieved, I personally think they would probably be most interested in preparing to move on to the next system as quickly as possible. They seem to be in a position where they could gain a lot from pressing as far as they can as quickly as they can before the loroi manage to put together a counterattack.

Agreed. The gate is crashed, hitting the next rally point is more important than combing through the splinters.

[Jagged]

It's really not wise to throw automated vessels at an enemy with allies who are known to be reeeeeaally good at hacking.

Didn't think of that.

[Revv]

Khalkha divisions (p. 88) carry a large amount of provisions just for that reason.

In military logistics there is a law of diminishing returns in regards to the amount of supplies and consumables a unit carries, the issue is a full fledged chapter in Sun Tzu's art of war even. To cut a long point short the more supplies you carry with you while marching the more equipment and manpower you will need to carry them with. The more equipment and manpower, the more supplies will be consumed on the march. One has to carefully plan ahead and organize the logistics requirements and the logistics train at the rear lines in order to properly supply all forces without there being needless waste while still having enough left for an emergency.

The Khalka divisions should have enough supplies on them to fulfill their objectives with some reserves left for emergencies. To do the necessary follow on campaign they will need to organize and safeguard the logistics chain to the front. For that they will need to set up a supply hub, supply outposts and supply convoys to feed their warmachine. All these are undoubtedly on the move at the time of this page.

Depending on the topical realities the Umiak will blockade Azimol and install a central supply hub a couple of jumps after it (the supply hub being a single jump away from a point of resistance is a big no-no). Taking out Azimol's citadel would require forces that the Umiak are unwilling to currently devote to and as such they will starve it as they pursue other objectives.

This is all true, however it should be noted that you're relating this with a more modern/historically based lens (the supplies part, specifically). It is undoubtedly true that the more supplies you bring -- whether it be food, people, or munitions -- the more you have to logistically consider. However, we have no indication of what the restrictions of the Umiak are, nor what their food requirement even is. They could get a full day's work in on a gallon of sugar water for all we know. That being said, even assuming their necessity for sustenance is non-negligible, I don't think the quantity of supplies required for a deep-dive into Loroi territory right now should be anything a regular warship of theirs couldn't handle (aside from a general increase of supplies for what-if reasons).

Why?

Because this is in all likelihood a suicide mission.

Why do I think this?

Well, I'll be honest and say that it's a mix of conjecture and reasonable assumption. The first bit of conjecture: The war isn't anywhere close to over at the time of the story. All the language used up to now has indicated as such, and while I can assume the Loroi are able to keep a potential spy in the dark (since they have no way of knowing Alex's inner thoughts), the few that believe him to be genuine would have mentioned something to the effect that the outcome of the war is all but inevitable by now (if not at least slipping up on their level of confidence). It seems pretty deadlocked, at best, currently.

The assumption: The Umiak's deep dive into Loroi territory is fundamentally suicidal, based off their 50% survival rate (a rough number, to be fair). That's before they even arrive at their destination. Assuming you need to prepare for a longstanding engagement, I would say that anywhere approaching 50% losses under those terms is unacceptable -- and that's not even considering this war has been fought for a long, long time. If losses at those numbers were acceptable, the war would likely be over by now, regardless of who won.

I see no reason why this couldn't be either a diversionary tactic or a test run of technology they have no proof of working yet (they have their proof now, were that the case). All we really know about the Umiak at this point in the story is they treat those under them like slaves, their own with little value, and that they apparently seek total control of their own ambitiously large empire. Why would they care about a couple hundred ships compared to the end of a great war preventing said empire?

Ultimately, if it is a suicide mission, you give different groups different high-profile targets and send the rest on distraction. I looked back and saw that they're splitting groups off for undisclosed objectives. I may not know all the high-profile targets, nor where they are, but this smells like a suicide run to me.

[Revv]

Granted, I don't know all the Insider/forum/worldbuilding material, so all I have to go off is the comic (which I admittedly need to go through fully again before posting much more), but I've seen enough of the other stuff to where I'm pretty sure Alex and Arioch aren't so far off in that they keep the important information close to their chest so as not to give too much of it away.

[Arioch]

In military logistics there is a law of diminishing returns in regards to the amount of supplies and consumables a unit carries, the issue is a full fledged chapter in Sun Tzu's art of war even. To cut a long point short the more supplies you carry with you while marching the more equipment and manpower you will need to carry them with. The more equipment and manpower, the more supplies will be consumed on the march. One has to carefully plan ahead and organize the logistics requirements and the logistics train at the rear lines in order to properly supply all forces without there being needless waste while still having enough left for an emergency.

While it's true that bringing supply ships with you increases the number of ships you need to protect them, the infantry analogy breaks down a bit applied to naval warfare (sorry, Sun Tzu!). Tankers and supply ships are dedicated support units that are designed to carry their own supplies in addition to the payload; having them with the fleet doesn't reduce the amount of supplies available to the rest of the fleet.

The whole point of a crasher force is so that you don't have to worry about keeping your supply lines open, though obviously it would be preferable if you can.

[spacewhale]

It'd follow that with expected attrition of combat units, your supplies would go further, assuming supply ships weren't targeted and wiped out specifically. Effort spent attacking logistical ships is effort not spent countering a superior number of warships.