Page 87

[icekatze]

hi hi

I see your operation sandstone and I raise you one: "The USA didn't have ICBMs until 1959, and conventional bombers were not nearly as capable a delivery method."

The answer that the Soviets would have had would be to intercept our bombers with their air force, to roll across Europe with their massive conventional military, which greatly outnumbered our own. It wasn't weakness that made the Soviets not want to open another front, it was an absence of stupidity.

((Also, I don't see what Western Protestantism has to do with it, both Truman and MacArthur belonged to various Christian denominations, but clearly their views on the use of nuclear weapons were different.))

[CptWinters]

Point being that Russia's conventional military power would be useless against a nuclear weapon.

[TrashMan]

To stretch the analogy given earlier a little bit more (perhaps close to the breaking point), if the Historians are the Vorlons then perhaps those who struck the Bellarmine are Shadows? I really, really hope that Arioch hasn't "borrowed" a plotline from previous art. That would be a shame.

All stories have been told before. There's no "original" plotlines really. Just hte stock ones mixed, matched and tweak in interesting ways.

[icekatze]

hi hi

50 nukes aren't going to cover the 54,759,000 square kilometers of Europe and Asia. Without satellite surveillance, what are you going to target anyway? A handful of cities in the Russian buffer states? Maybe hope that they bunch up their entire army in a big convenient clump for no reason? Maybe you'd use them on your allies cities, on Berlin, Rome or Paris after they are occupied?

[TrashMan]

Let's not forget people, that humans didn't have a need for military development, and even the small TCS fleet is considered too large, as there's simply ntohing to fight against...or should I say, there was nothing to fight against.

We humans are clever monkeys, and when the survival of the entire race is at stake, you can bet that no expense will be spared. Humanity would kick it into high-gear, and I'd expect amazing progress (especialyl givan that Arioch stated human progress amazingly fast compared to Loroi/Umiak).
HOWEVER...if we knew about that war 20 years in advance, that might have helped...with just 2-4 years at our disposal, there's really not much humans can do.


I do however look forward to the part of the story where Beryl asks Alex when humanity achieved space-flight (and find out we have no Soia artifacts to work with)

[Imbrooge]

I would just like to point out that since the Loroi and most other aliens developed their tech at such comparatively slow paces (except possibly Historians) that maybe what the Loroi consider to be fast or slow development to be very different from us. As in their expectations would be that we will not be combat ready within centuries, atleast.

[Ktrain]

Plan.

Step 1. Acquire Technology
Step 2. ???
Step 3. Profit (TERRAN GALACTIC HEGEMONY)

If humanity were to acquire even some "backwards" or civilian tech; we might be able to put it to such good use that in 30-50yrs our neighbors might be facepalming/clawing themselves. We are a listless species that is always on the move.

[TrashMan]

I would just like to point out that since the Loroi and most other aliens developed their tech at such comparatively slow paces (except possibly Historians) that maybe what the Loroi consider to be fast or slow development to be very different from us. As in their expectations would be that we will not be combat ready within centuries, atleast.

Good point.
Once they study Bells remains and find out that 4 out of our 6 colonies are still in infant stages....they might think humans aren't worth the hassle.

[javcs]

IIRC, Arioch has stated (somewhere) that left to our own devices, humans would reach approximate parity with mainline Umiak/Loroi technologies in ~100-200? years. It took them upwards of 1000 years.

They're said to be 5? tech generations ahead of humanity, but humanity (for various reasons) has a substantially faster technological development - almost frighteningly fast.
As such, with tech support/transfers to make us more useful, even only on a limited basis, would result in exceedingly rapid advancement.

One postulated usage of humanity for the Loroi was as R&D people.

---

The Loroi are either going to annex us as a protectorate of sorts, or exterminate us - they would rather exterminate a species than let the Umiak have them under normal conditions - and, since as far as they know, humans are seemingly immune to their Farsensing abilities, that makes us even more valuable a resource to deny the Umiak.
The Umiak would take us over for the resources and manpower. IF they learned of humanities apparent invisibility to Loroi Farsensing, they'd probably transplant enough of us for a viable colony somewhere further behind their lines where the Loroi wouldn't be able to kill us all.

They're in a war of mutual annihilation. Only one empire can survive. Anything that may be of value is to be controlled or, at the very least, denied to the enemy.

[Nemo]

hi hi

50 nukes aren't going to cover the 54,759,000 square kilometers of Europe and Asia. Without satellite surveillance, what are you going to target anyway? A handful of cities in the Russian buffer states? Maybe hope that they bunch up their entire army in a big convenient clump for no reason? Maybe you'd use them on your allies cities, on Berlin, Rome or Paris after they are occupied?

Well this is certainly a first. You could target shipping ports, and the cities built around them - like St. Petersburg/Leningrad. Factories producing t-34/t-54 tanks, and the cities built around them - like the Stalingrad Tractor Factory. Could target government centers in Moscow, and the city built around them. Rail junctions in the Trans-Siberian line, and the cities built around them. And of course, any substantial buildup of forces, infantry and armor. In truth, 50 nukes would have more than devastated any coherent resistance the Soviets could have offered, even granting combat loses. Thats why the Soviets rushed to their own nukes.

((Also, I don't see what Western Protestantism has to do with it, both Truman and MacArthur belonged to various Christian denominations, but clearly their views on the use of nuclear weapons were different.))

Impossible, their religion dogmatically forces rigid "thought" structure from on high! *cough* /sarc

Heh, sorry had to. Protestantism at its core, according to Luther, was about free will. The ability for each man to be his own Priest, his own clergy. No intercessor. It fell to the individual to be responsible for his life, actions, and afterlife. Consequently, no one could force that on you, just as you ought not force it on another. The Reformation culminated, after some years of war, in the Peace of Westphalia which allowed each state power of its own religious affairs, and each person in the state the power over his personal private religious affairs. This goes hand in hand with Classic Liberalism. Under this theory, man is equal and independent with the right to his own life, health, liberty, and property. John Locke, the father of this school of thought, held that it was more disruptive to try to coerce order than it was to live with the disruption of diversity.

Lets flip this on its ear and give the Soviet Union the most powerful industry on the planet and sole possession of the atomic bomb. Would they have stayed their hand? Certainly not. The end goal was the entire world united under the banner of the Revolution, by any means necessary.

Consider once more, the power was there but the will was not. An observer like the Umiak/Loroi would see that as folly given what happened, and could have happened, afterwards.

[anticarrot]

It wasn't weakness that made the Soviets not want to open another front, it was an absence of stupidity.

Actually a bit of both. The soviet union lost 30,000,000 people during WWII. And they lied about for five decades, claiming a mere 20M instead. There's good historical evidence that they were very worried they would be unable to sustain another armed conflict so close to 1945.

[Ktrain]

The number one Russian objective has been territorial security; the idea that the Soviets wanted a world hegemony is just Cold War propaganda (and I never hear anyone complain about the capitalist hegemony that the West promoted and that has risen since the end of the bipolar world).

Also, as anticarrot has stated, the Soviets most likely would not have been aggressive with the bomb because that would have prompted another war. Furthermore, the logistics of even delivering such weapons to civilian targets before IBCMs would require near air superiority.

[icekatze]

hi hi

I'm not going to try to predict what would have happened if the USA had decided to use its nukes, or if the Soviets had the bomb first, you can use your imagination for that and its really anyone's guess. I suspect that it wouldn't be as simple as it seems in theory. What I am saying is that there were real, legitimate strategic and logistic concerns about feasibility of a pre-emptive strike with or without atomic bombs, beyond simple moral upbringing. ((which is not so different cross cultures as you may or may not be implying. Honestly, your whole point about Protestant morality is kind of confusing.)) Yes, there was a lot of moral opposition to the use of nuclear weapons as well, and that may have been why Truman ultimately refused MacArthurs request, but it wasn't the only reason out there.

The non-crippled nature of the Soviet air force and air defenses (which outnumbered the allies by 11,802 fighters and fighter/bombers at the end of WW2), the inexact nature of intelligence on the location and strength of opposing forces (Foot, The Wrong War, pp.105. Operation Hudson Harbor involved several simulated atomic strikes in support of US-UN ground troops in Korea), the uncertainty about the location and progress of the Soviets own nuclear program, the inability of atomic weapons of the era to defeat underground bunkers, political concerns about neutral nations and their reactions to acts of aggression, and a general low morale/war weariness on all sides were just a few of them. (Operation Unthinkable)

I'm not going to try to defend Stalin's character, but the existence of people like Stanislav Petrov goes to show that there are moral people on all sides.

Edit: A powerful weapon, yes, but it was never an "I WIN" button all by itself. Later on it did became a "YOU LOSE," button but thats not quite the same thing.

[dex drako]

it's true humans in this story advance at amazing speed and now that we know what has been done they will likely be at a equal tech level even quicker. (something like 25-50 is even likely)

this is why no one is saying humans couldn't help in the war, some people like me are trying saying the war will likely be over before Alex ever makes it home again. think about it if there is a thrid party involved in the war Alex will be the driving force behind Exposing them and this would likely end this war. the loroi and the bugs would, by choice or Necessity, join forces to fight this new mutual enemy. even if there is no third power involved Alex will do something that causes the end of the war or at least a major change to the status quo which will be as good as ending the war.

either way he'll be the only major human in the story other ways there would be no reason for Alex to be the only human left alive.

The non-crippled nature of the Soviet air force and air defenses (which outnumbered the allies by 11,802 fighters and fighter/bombers at the end of WW2)

one point of fact the Soviet air force as of WWII has out of date and/or poorly designed aircraft and porrly trained pilots. it wouldn't be untill years after the end of the war that they would get there acts together and became a true major air power.

[Nemo]

The number one Russian objective has been territorial security; the idea that the Soviets wanted a world hegemony is just Cold War propaganda

Not what Lenin said in his Left-Wing Communism: an Infantile Disorder, not what Stalin did with Europe and Manchuria, not what Khrushchev hammered out in the UN.


Leme bring this full circle because I think Im losing people. It was wondered how the Loroi and Umiak would react to our nearly wiping ourselves out in the Cold War. Would they be shocked, impressed? I say it was the wrong question. The US found itself in a position where it was quite possible to prevent the Cold War from happening at all. A position whereby it could have kept the world from being destroyed in a nuclear holocaust. The US did not because it was not in its nature, not from lack of capacity. I say the warrior Loroi would see such inaction as weakness, and the calculating Umiak would see such risk as foolish.

[Ktrain]

@ Use of low yield nuclear weapons: http://www.carloslabs.com/node/20 (and 10 Hiroshima nukes would have ejected enough material into the atmosphere, which would have resulted in a nuclear winter scenario).

@ Nemo.

Your opinions and attitude remind me of how I thought 8 years ago. There is a lack of coherence in your logic and statements; you initially referenced some distorted Weber theory and pulled off some lip service to the classical liberalism. You have constructed some sort of dichotomy referencing these sources in order to differentiate two nations, but you have over simplified and moralized historical politics. Rather than employing Occam's razor and follow political realism, you have chosen to embrace a world view similar to constructivism. Monolithic communism has never existed.

Ideology <=/=> Strategic goals

Function of ideology <=/=> To the state aims of ideology

One only needs to observe contemporary politics to find cases wherein the above statements hold true.
Q.E.D.

[icekatze]

hi hi

I think it might depend on who you ask what their views of humanity's war stained past. Some of the Loroi's past emperors may have seen holding back ones forces on any occasion as a weakness, though others like Swiftsure might appreciate humanity's power sharing balancing act. The Umiak and the Loroi did play nice for 25 years before the Great War began, so there's reason to believe that personalities on both sides would see the practical value of caution.

[Trantor]

Comes to my mind right now: We fired a lot of nukes ~220 years before todays storyline? I mean, radio transmissions and seti stuff aside, wouldn´t a nuclear explosion have been registered 20 years ago?

The Sun is a continuous fusion explosion on a massive scale... I rather doubt you would be able to distinguish artifical nuclear explosions from those of the primary from 200 light years away.

Hi, sry for returning late on this topic - emergency job inbetween.

Well, i´d rather go with the needle-in-the-haystack argument. Two high-tech tribes at war with all of their intel and sensors on high revving are certainly able to receive the distinct signature of a nuclear bomb.
I remember an article about SETI and radio-transmissions from earth to the stars and stuff and some professor of Caltech stated that even with our limited capabilities back then (late ´80ies) scientists would have been able to detect a nuclear explosion of 1MT as far away as 30 million LYs, assumed they knew what to look for. (Point of that discussion was, that our nukes "outperformed" these radiotransmissions by far)
Maybe both sides will now go combing through their historic databases...

[Trantor]

On that "Good Americans" vs. "Bad Soviet" flamewar: I doubt the soviets of ´45-´50 would have bombed the rest of the world. (Nor the US had, despite some military blockheads desperately wanted to.)
But i´m pretty sure Nazi-Germany would have done this, if they already had nukes.



This one shortly OT:

one point of fact the Soviet air force as of WWII has out of date and/or poorly designed aircraft and porrly trained pilots. it wouldn't be untill years after the end of the war that they would get there acts together and became a true major air power.

Ahem. The best US fighter pilot had only 40 kills, and he didn´d survive the war.
The best soviet pilot, Ivan Kozhedub, had 62.
(<chauvinism on>...and BTW, there were more than 400 german aces more succesful than mr. Bong...<chauvinism off> )


Also, their early Jetfighters were superior to those of the USAF, thanks to the german intel they collected. (No <chauvinism>-tags here.)

[Karst45]

The US found itself in a position where it was quite possible to prevent the Cold War from happening at all.

Well what we did see is a major progress in space exploration simply because we wanted to be better than the red and saw advantage in that. Am sure the loroi could create 2 group of human and say: The group with the most useful invention/discovery for our war will be rewarded, the other will be destroyed. And am quite sure the result would be impressive. We simply are more productive when placed with an immediate need and even more when this need could save our life.