Snu Snu?Grayhome wrote:I look forward to how ALex will convince the Loroi that he is in fact, NOT a spy.
Page 90
Moderator: Outsider Moderators
Re: Page 90
OUTSIDER UPDATE => HALF LIFE 3 CONFIRMED?
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Aaaah, dammit Arioch! I saw the new page up so early and was all excited, but now I've got this stupid water in my eyes, you damn bastard- ...you're the best...
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I looked that up. Kinda wish I hadn't.Snu Snu?
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"The spirit is willing but the flesh is bruised and spongy."
OUTSIDER UPDATE => HALF LIFE 3 CONFIRMED?
Re: Page 90
If it's Fireblade, it could well be "Death by Snu Snu."Grayhome wrote:I looked that up. Kinda wish I hadn't.Snu Snu?
"But notice how the Human thinks. 'Interesting... how can I use this as a weapon?'" - Arioch
Re: Page 90
Suttrjac wrote:Seems more to me Alex doesn't particularly understand the context of the song, which is (if you take a stretch) understandable considering there's more than a hundred years between himself and the original disgruntled, that being a mockery of the current world of shit one inhabits ala FMJ. His mission is to ensure the survival of his species, not a police action against communists. Even still I imagine he sang it rather bitterly which would at least make it more appropiate to the moment but that's just me.
Probably there wouldn't be any reprecussions, at least not anything immediate, the nice thing about humanity is that we've perfected the science, nay art, of lying through our teeth
The original context? The original had nothing to do with Hollywood anti-war movies, though it certainly spread the meme. http://www.televisiontunes.com/Mickey_M ... osing.html
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I meant that in the context of the militarized disgruntled, not the happy childhood cartoon. Having sung the song myself in a rather miserable situation I always (and others beside myself) felt it expressed the absurdness of our state that we might not otherwise have been able to convey. It's a bit of a defiant gesture which thinking back does have precedent with Alex, one might recall his little space karaoke right before running out of oxygen.
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actually if we take loroi culture, he will gross the entire cafeteria just by being a male.dfacto wrote:Didn't expect that, but it fits the bill perfectly. Stupid, but just not stupid enough to avoid real trouble later.
And for his next magic trick, Alex grosses out an entire cafeteria of Loroi with his nasty human face-stuffing.
Grayhome wrote:I look forward to how ALex will convince the Loroi that he is in fact, NOT a spy.
Simply like this
Re: Page 90
Probably. But if I were to wait patiently until enough data became available to make a more informed opinion, I'd be waiting for the better part of a decade.fredgiblet wrote: I think you're jumping the gun by several days there.
That's possible, but I think I ought to elaborate more on my opinion. Wall of text beneath the spoiler tag.fredgiblet wrote: If they were running for something secret where they go NOW literally doesn't matter since the Umiak are aware of the jump points in this area and it will be a couple days before they get to friendly lines, much less anything hidden. Remember why Alex was allowed to stay on the bridge, he asked to be allowed to view the final blow to the 'Bell, Stillstorm didn't even want him to see that but Tempo won that battle. Now that it's over Stillstorm is likely simply saying "It saw what it was here to see now get it off my bridge."
SpoilerShow
I kinda doubt Stillstorm herself currently knows where their very next jump will go. Much less the position of and path to their hidden rebel base.
Loroi telepathic communication is "always direct, honest, and truthful." This not only means that they don't lie, but also makes simple misdirection and omission extremely difficult.
Knowledge of the mere existence of the reserve fleet would be a highly guarded secret, since if the Umiak knew that the Loroi were holding a sizeable reserve force they would adopt some suitable countermeasure.
Knowledge of it's position is something that would have to be withheld from the warriors.
I think information flows easily and to a much greater extent between Loroi telepaths than it would between humans. We've already seen Loroi captains maintaining fairly lax interpersonal discipline during their battle chatter, and telepathy wasn't even an issue there. Loroi are also predisposed to speak forthrightly on all subjects, and feel it dishonest to do otherwise.
So, let's say fleet commanders know how to get to the reserve fleet. There are probably a few provisions for emergency circumstances under which fleet captains would have to report to the reserve fleet, after all. So, Fleet Captain Nameless knows. Over the course of several strategy-related conference sessions, her command staff all learn about it too. Nameless' command staff are highly veteran warriors due for a shift away from the front, and Nameless' chief Listel, Blankspace, is up for reproduction rights, to be granted to her on the nearest inhabited world. Blankspace is proud to be a Loroi warrior, proud of serving on Nameless' ship, and proud to be getting knocked up, in accordance with their traditions. In order to get preggers, Blankspace has to come in direct physical contact with a male, let's call him Bob, for several minutes. As a male, Bob is in awe of Blankspace, her status, her duties, her position as a warrior, all of that, and so, while interpersonally entangled, Blankspace's eidetic memories and Bob's natural curiosity allow for the reserve fleet's movements to transfer to Bob, a male on stud duty. Bob has sex with several other warriors who also all know of the existence, if not position and motion, of the reserve fleet. Bob, as a male on stud duty during a wartime gearing up for major industrial production and seeking to replace hundreds of millions of dead civilians from worlds like Seren, also has sex with a number of civilians. Who, naturally, sanzai with their friends about the war. So the most important information in the entire Union spiraled outward from one fleet commander to her staff to an entire inhabited world. The Hierarchy learns of it in a matter of months. Information wants to be free.
How do you control information of such significance in a society that values honesty to such an extent and with standard means of communication of such a nature?
I have only managed to think of two ways which could satisfactorily restrict such information while making it accessible to the command staff should it be absolutely needed. The first and most obvious way is to entrust it to a fleet's Mizol, rather than to the commander or any other member of her staff without supremely powerful mental discipline and thought shielding; in this manner, the military commander and the intelligence agent would have to both agree that the use of such information was warranted in order for the fleet to act on it. The second way is to employ a heavily, HEAVILY encrypted database for your secrets aboard the command ships, preferably rigged to self-destruct, which the Commander can access, again requiring some sort of corroboration on the part of some other officer, again probably preferably a Mizol. Both of these possibilities could manage to actually keep the intel out of enemy hands, most of the time, but they also serve to keep potentially necessary intel out of your own fleet's hands should a given fleet's Command ship get blown up at an inopportune moment. That seems a necessary tradeoff with this situation, though.
With the Mizol option, you have a potentially unhackable system. The Mizol cannot be safely captured or interrogated by any Hierarchy race due to their formidable telepathic faculties and mild telekinesis, and extreme mental shields might make them all but impossible for a normal Loroi to crack; their training in deception and talent with telepathic communication makes them significantly less likely to allow vital intelligence loose than other Loroi. And they can communicate intelligence as needed to specific individual Loroi in ways that non-Loroi cannot even perceive. However, that relies on there being enough Mizol to go around, and each individual Mizol being adequate to whatever situation might crop up, meaning that there have to be a whole hell of a LOT of Loroi born with telepathic abilities bordering on the preternatural, not just in order to get one per command ship, but to maintain a continuous rate of replacement. This also expands the role of the Mizol caste beyond what many commanders are probably comfortable with; it's not just that a Mizol COULD be lying to you at a given time, it's that the Mizol would be required to CONSTANTLY withhold information and/or flat-out lie until THEY, and not their commanders, judge it the proper moment. I can imagine the resentment causing more friction than absolutely necessary.
The computer model requires more effort on everyone's part and creates a system that can conceivably be defeated with greater ease, but not necessarily one that can be defeated within an appropriate timeframe; let's say interception fleets rotate every [x time period], if you change out their encryption cores every [2x time period] and change the reserve fleet's position and such every [4x time period] and it takes [16x time period] for the Umiak to crack a given encryption and drink up the gooey intel inside, then even a fully functional salvaged Loroi computer system does them no good. It places somewhat less strain on the already-innately-strained relationship between Loroi military commander and intelligence attache, requires fewer and expects less out of each Mizol, and, potentially, leaves the Emperor and her fleet less exposed to enemies within the Mizol caste itself should such arise.
In either case, were I Stillstorm I would get the alien the hell off of my bridge regardless of whether I liked it or not.
What you know about it is that it looks like a Loroi and it has perfect mental shields and perfect lotai despite obviously being capable of independent thought. That's three reasons right there to assume it has formidable telepathic capabilities, regardless of what it says on the matter; the specific nature of those known abilities suggest that it is some sort of super-Mizol, and thus, naturally, a liar and manipulator. Wherever possible, you would have to take precaution against deceit, far moreso than with any other race. A Mizol might be able to pick important bits of intel out of stray communications from other Loroi (I don't really know or anything, just guessing), so some kind of legendary super-Mizol might be able to grab intel as it passes from Tempo to Stillstorm. Or from Stillstorm to her navigator. Or across any point in the entire bridge crew, as soon as the intel leaves the protection of Tempo's mental defenses.
And, being Stillstorm and thus a Loroi warrior unaccustomed to actually parsing speech to read between the lines but accustomed to distrusting both aliens and the Mizol, I'd think Tempo's mental defenses themselves to be suspect at the moment. The alien learned that the Farseer runs on telepathy from Tempo, even though Tempo never said that (yes, you, I, and Alex can read between the lines, we have years of experience there, but Stillstorm does not and thus probably thinks he pulled that knowledge from some external source [such as education, indicating that he's lying about his species and lack of foreknowledge, or available but nonverbal information, since who trusts spoken words anyways, right?]). The alien also manipulated Tempo into confronting the captain just so it could stay on the bridge, and whether that manipulation was verbal or telepathic matters little since it demonstrates that the alien can manipulate her. Then, while the alien was on the bridge, the enemy opened communications, an utterly unprecedented act, during which the enemy blathered about some pretty straightforward things about their overall plans and also some nonsense about surrendering in order to live the rest of their lives as civilians somewhere (as if any Loroi warrior who could still fight could even consider such an offer); there is no apparent reason for this communique since their offer was unconscionable to a true Loroi warrior's ethos, unless the true purpose of opening communications somehow involved the non-Loroi element on the bridge. Then, while the alien was on the bridge, Tempo kept the communications channel open, long enough for the alien to speak its odd words in its blasphemous eldritch tongue from beyond the spheres that we know, to which the enemy immediately responded with some unknown. So, whatever the alien's purpose on the bridge and whatever the enemy's purpose in hailing it, they were both facilitated by Tempo. Obviously even if she doesn't know it yet, Tempo has been compromised by the alien. Bringing up important secrets while he's around her or anyone else within thought-range is a bad idea, almost as bad as splitting up to explore the haunted house right after the black guy dies. Too bad you can't just shove the alien out the nearest airlock anymore, you could've prevent an entire horror movie plot that way, but noooo, Tempo had to be all "ooh, Silent Hill, sounds nice, let's have a picnic there!"
So, with Mizol entrusted with the data, get the alien the hell out of there before discussing it.
With a computer storing the data, you also get the alien the fuck out of there before accessing it, because you don't know if it can read Trade or not, any more than you know if it can read minds or not. And you don't know how good its vision is. Or how good its memory is. Or if it has some means of contacting some network of spies and infiltrators. Or anything. For all you know, the Bell was a ship full of simulacra destined for some trade station or inhabited world where the females were then going to paint themselves blue, put on some fake ears, lower their lotai and mental shielding just a bit, and pass off as civilians throughout the Union, while the males achieved some unknown purpose or purposes. So maybe there were other ships before it, maybe the entire infrastructure of the Union is already compromised and the alien would just need five seconds with a radio within range of any Loroi inhabited world or station and the data's as good as in Umiak hands.
So both of those ways of protecting data from the enemy could potentially make the data more vulnerable to Alex right now than ubiquitous Loroi knowledge would be, even though the latter would be more vulnerable to the enemy under normal circumstances.
Thus, by my reckoning, the urgency of getting Alex off the bridge actually would rise by several orders of magnitude, starting immediately, if they're making for the reserve fleet. Even though 27 can watch the 51st leave the system, the alien aboard would have greater potential to compromise their course and objective, starting as soon as they settle on it rather than as soon as they reach a jump point.
Then there's Beryl. Normally her speech relating unpleasantries from other Loroi to Alex is somewhat reticent. She is also often very precise. Now, though, instead of worrying about offending him or trying to cushion her words, she's relaying orders as quickly and urgently as possible, and doing so at the cost of precision; "we must leave--QUICKLY!" could be interpreted as "we" meaning "the 51st," meaning she'd just be telling him the fleet needs to run now. I think that's a misinterpretation, but there being room for interpretation at all means Beryl has dropped precision in favor of urgency, something she had not done before, not when she said "Captain Jardin, we have been dismissed" nor when she said " I can't guarantee your safety." So I think this is something that goes a little beyond either of those instances, even though one of those instances relayed the same order given under similar circumstances by the same person.
So, respectfully, Dr. Giblet, I still feel that your model does not follow the observed datapoints to the best fit, and I furthermore feel that mine offers more predictive value, whereas yours seems nigh unfalsifiable, and that since falsifiability is the beating heart of the scientific method it is my model which shall meet with superior response through peer review in the journals...
...wait...
...dammit.
Speaking of falsifiability, I tried to think of things that could show us which way's more likely to be right, without requiring the Loroi to tell us directly. Here's the only thing I came up with.
The reserve fleet will need to be supplied, maintained, and will just in general have a whole hell of a lot of other intermediary ships running between support bases and the fleet. There are actually several different ways to handle this depending upon just how much support the fleet actually needs; if the answer is "surprisingly little," for instance, you could probably automate the process, or employ highly trusted non-Loroi (such as the Barsam) to act as couriers (as Rigai Mozin does for Stillstorm's fleet). But, in general, I would assume individual Loroi to be points of weakness here; it might be difficult for the Loroi to trust aliens or computers, but it would be impossible for Command to trust Loroi warriors to keep a secret. So the fewer Loroi are in the loop, the better, even if that means replacing a Loroi with a Neridi freighter.
The more maintenance Loroi ships require, the harder it will be to keep them together and keep them secret. I don't know if there's any sort of workaround for this. I mean, I elaborated on the problems with the command staff of an assault fleet knowing about the reserve force, just imagine the problems with a planetary government or a shipping guild learning and then interacting with outsiders. And it's not like you can make resuppliers into a self-contained system, not when their purpose is to take things from somewhere else and give them to the fleet. I really don't know how to satisfactorily restrict information on the fleet while resupplying it to any really serious extent, so I will assume that if Loroi vessels require much by way of casual repair or resupply then my model can be thrown out.
We can learn something about the maintenance requirements of ships without battle damage just by watching the 51st to see if they make any stops. They've been at space without resupply and in combat situations for several days running according to the dialogue between Ashrain and Moonglow; if they don't need to get refit, or even refueled, it's a good bet that Loroi ships are very low maintenance indeed. If they do make any stops along the way, however, it will indicate them to be fairly high-maintenance, since any and all of their missions from here out could be considered of supreme priority, be it "put the alien somewhere appropriate for a first contact," "warn the system defenses," "reach the reserve fleet," "scramble messengers," "find the Umiak attack force and either intercept them or help whoever's fighting them fend them off," or "do something too smart for Solemn to have thought of it."
I suppose some sort of medium maintenance could be shown by having a large number of the 51st transfer personnel, cargo, fuel and supplies to the rest of the fleet and then going off for maintenance elsewhere, which would show that the 51st needs maintenance and resupply really badly while still needing to fulfill its mission. Such a result would produce no useful data one way or the other.
Apart from that (which could only serve to prove me wrong), I suppose that yeah, we'll have no way of really knowing until well into 2017.
Loroi telepathic communication is "always direct, honest, and truthful." This not only means that they don't lie, but also makes simple misdirection and omission extremely difficult.
Knowledge of the mere existence of the reserve fleet would be a highly guarded secret, since if the Umiak knew that the Loroi were holding a sizeable reserve force they would adopt some suitable countermeasure.
Knowledge of it's position is something that would have to be withheld from the warriors.
I think information flows easily and to a much greater extent between Loroi telepaths than it would between humans. We've already seen Loroi captains maintaining fairly lax interpersonal discipline during their battle chatter, and telepathy wasn't even an issue there. Loroi are also predisposed to speak forthrightly on all subjects, and feel it dishonest to do otherwise.
So, let's say fleet commanders know how to get to the reserve fleet. There are probably a few provisions for emergency circumstances under which fleet captains would have to report to the reserve fleet, after all. So, Fleet Captain Nameless knows. Over the course of several strategy-related conference sessions, her command staff all learn about it too. Nameless' command staff are highly veteran warriors due for a shift away from the front, and Nameless' chief Listel, Blankspace, is up for reproduction rights, to be granted to her on the nearest inhabited world. Blankspace is proud to be a Loroi warrior, proud of serving on Nameless' ship, and proud to be getting knocked up, in accordance with their traditions. In order to get preggers, Blankspace has to come in direct physical contact with a male, let's call him Bob, for several minutes. As a male, Bob is in awe of Blankspace, her status, her duties, her position as a warrior, all of that, and so, while interpersonally entangled, Blankspace's eidetic memories and Bob's natural curiosity allow for the reserve fleet's movements to transfer to Bob, a male on stud duty. Bob has sex with several other warriors who also all know of the existence, if not position and motion, of the reserve fleet. Bob, as a male on stud duty during a wartime gearing up for major industrial production and seeking to replace hundreds of millions of dead civilians from worlds like Seren, also has sex with a number of civilians. Who, naturally, sanzai with their friends about the war. So the most important information in the entire Union spiraled outward from one fleet commander to her staff to an entire inhabited world. The Hierarchy learns of it in a matter of months. Information wants to be free.
How do you control information of such significance in a society that values honesty to such an extent and with standard means of communication of such a nature?
I have only managed to think of two ways which could satisfactorily restrict such information while making it accessible to the command staff should it be absolutely needed. The first and most obvious way is to entrust it to a fleet's Mizol, rather than to the commander or any other member of her staff without supremely powerful mental discipline and thought shielding; in this manner, the military commander and the intelligence agent would have to both agree that the use of such information was warranted in order for the fleet to act on it. The second way is to employ a heavily, HEAVILY encrypted database for your secrets aboard the command ships, preferably rigged to self-destruct, which the Commander can access, again requiring some sort of corroboration on the part of some other officer, again probably preferably a Mizol. Both of these possibilities could manage to actually keep the intel out of enemy hands, most of the time, but they also serve to keep potentially necessary intel out of your own fleet's hands should a given fleet's Command ship get blown up at an inopportune moment. That seems a necessary tradeoff with this situation, though.
With the Mizol option, you have a potentially unhackable system. The Mizol cannot be safely captured or interrogated by any Hierarchy race due to their formidable telepathic faculties and mild telekinesis, and extreme mental shields might make them all but impossible for a normal Loroi to crack; their training in deception and talent with telepathic communication makes them significantly less likely to allow vital intelligence loose than other Loroi. And they can communicate intelligence as needed to specific individual Loroi in ways that non-Loroi cannot even perceive. However, that relies on there being enough Mizol to go around, and each individual Mizol being adequate to whatever situation might crop up, meaning that there have to be a whole hell of a LOT of Loroi born with telepathic abilities bordering on the preternatural, not just in order to get one per command ship, but to maintain a continuous rate of replacement. This also expands the role of the Mizol caste beyond what many commanders are probably comfortable with; it's not just that a Mizol COULD be lying to you at a given time, it's that the Mizol would be required to CONSTANTLY withhold information and/or flat-out lie until THEY, and not their commanders, judge it the proper moment. I can imagine the resentment causing more friction than absolutely necessary.
The computer model requires more effort on everyone's part and creates a system that can conceivably be defeated with greater ease, but not necessarily one that can be defeated within an appropriate timeframe; let's say interception fleets rotate every [x time period], if you change out their encryption cores every [2x time period] and change the reserve fleet's position and such every [4x time period] and it takes [16x time period] for the Umiak to crack a given encryption and drink up the gooey intel inside, then even a fully functional salvaged Loroi computer system does them no good. It places somewhat less strain on the already-innately-strained relationship between Loroi military commander and intelligence attache, requires fewer and expects less out of each Mizol, and, potentially, leaves the Emperor and her fleet less exposed to enemies within the Mizol caste itself should such arise.
In either case, were I Stillstorm I would get the alien the hell off of my bridge regardless of whether I liked it or not.
What you know about it is that it looks like a Loroi and it has perfect mental shields and perfect lotai despite obviously being capable of independent thought. That's three reasons right there to assume it has formidable telepathic capabilities, regardless of what it says on the matter; the specific nature of those known abilities suggest that it is some sort of super-Mizol, and thus, naturally, a liar and manipulator. Wherever possible, you would have to take precaution against deceit, far moreso than with any other race. A Mizol might be able to pick important bits of intel out of stray communications from other Loroi (I don't really know or anything, just guessing), so some kind of legendary super-Mizol might be able to grab intel as it passes from Tempo to Stillstorm. Or from Stillstorm to her navigator. Or across any point in the entire bridge crew, as soon as the intel leaves the protection of Tempo's mental defenses.
And, being Stillstorm and thus a Loroi warrior unaccustomed to actually parsing speech to read between the lines but accustomed to distrusting both aliens and the Mizol, I'd think Tempo's mental defenses themselves to be suspect at the moment. The alien learned that the Farseer runs on telepathy from Tempo, even though Tempo never said that (yes, you, I, and Alex can read between the lines, we have years of experience there, but Stillstorm does not and thus probably thinks he pulled that knowledge from some external source [such as education, indicating that he's lying about his species and lack of foreknowledge, or available but nonverbal information, since who trusts spoken words anyways, right?]). The alien also manipulated Tempo into confronting the captain just so it could stay on the bridge, and whether that manipulation was verbal or telepathic matters little since it demonstrates that the alien can manipulate her. Then, while the alien was on the bridge, the enemy opened communications, an utterly unprecedented act, during which the enemy blathered about some pretty straightforward things about their overall plans and also some nonsense about surrendering in order to live the rest of their lives as civilians somewhere (as if any Loroi warrior who could still fight could even consider such an offer); there is no apparent reason for this communique since their offer was unconscionable to a true Loroi warrior's ethos, unless the true purpose of opening communications somehow involved the non-Loroi element on the bridge. Then, while the alien was on the bridge, Tempo kept the communications channel open, long enough for the alien to speak its odd words in its blasphemous eldritch tongue from beyond the spheres that we know, to which the enemy immediately responded with some unknown. So, whatever the alien's purpose on the bridge and whatever the enemy's purpose in hailing it, they were both facilitated by Tempo. Obviously even if she doesn't know it yet, Tempo has been compromised by the alien. Bringing up important secrets while he's around her or anyone else within thought-range is a bad idea, almost as bad as splitting up to explore the haunted house right after the black guy dies. Too bad you can't just shove the alien out the nearest airlock anymore, you could've prevent an entire horror movie plot that way, but noooo, Tempo had to be all "ooh, Silent Hill, sounds nice, let's have a picnic there!"
So, with Mizol entrusted with the data, get the alien the hell out of there before discussing it.
With a computer storing the data, you also get the alien the fuck out of there before accessing it, because you don't know if it can read Trade or not, any more than you know if it can read minds or not. And you don't know how good its vision is. Or how good its memory is. Or if it has some means of contacting some network of spies and infiltrators. Or anything. For all you know, the Bell was a ship full of simulacra destined for some trade station or inhabited world where the females were then going to paint themselves blue, put on some fake ears, lower their lotai and mental shielding just a bit, and pass off as civilians throughout the Union, while the males achieved some unknown purpose or purposes. So maybe there were other ships before it, maybe the entire infrastructure of the Union is already compromised and the alien would just need five seconds with a radio within range of any Loroi inhabited world or station and the data's as good as in Umiak hands.
So both of those ways of protecting data from the enemy could potentially make the data more vulnerable to Alex right now than ubiquitous Loroi knowledge would be, even though the latter would be more vulnerable to the enemy under normal circumstances.
Thus, by my reckoning, the urgency of getting Alex off the bridge actually would rise by several orders of magnitude, starting immediately, if they're making for the reserve fleet. Even though 27 can watch the 51st leave the system, the alien aboard would have greater potential to compromise their course and objective, starting as soon as they settle on it rather than as soon as they reach a jump point.
Then there's Beryl. Normally her speech relating unpleasantries from other Loroi to Alex is somewhat reticent. She is also often very precise. Now, though, instead of worrying about offending him or trying to cushion her words, she's relaying orders as quickly and urgently as possible, and doing so at the cost of precision; "we must leave--QUICKLY!" could be interpreted as "we" meaning "the 51st," meaning she'd just be telling him the fleet needs to run now. I think that's a misinterpretation, but there being room for interpretation at all means Beryl has dropped precision in favor of urgency, something she had not done before, not when she said "Captain Jardin, we have been dismissed" nor when she said " I can't guarantee your safety." So I think this is something that goes a little beyond either of those instances, even though one of those instances relayed the same order given under similar circumstances by the same person.
So, respectfully, Dr. Giblet, I still feel that your model does not follow the observed datapoints to the best fit, and I furthermore feel that mine offers more predictive value, whereas yours seems nigh unfalsifiable, and that since falsifiability is the beating heart of the scientific method it is my model which shall meet with superior response through peer review in the journals...
...wait...
...dammit.
Speaking of falsifiability, I tried to think of things that could show us which way's more likely to be right, without requiring the Loroi to tell us directly. Here's the only thing I came up with.
The reserve fleet will need to be supplied, maintained, and will just in general have a whole hell of a lot of other intermediary ships running between support bases and the fleet. There are actually several different ways to handle this depending upon just how much support the fleet actually needs; if the answer is "surprisingly little," for instance, you could probably automate the process, or employ highly trusted non-Loroi (such as the Barsam) to act as couriers (as Rigai Mozin does for Stillstorm's fleet). But, in general, I would assume individual Loroi to be points of weakness here; it might be difficult for the Loroi to trust aliens or computers, but it would be impossible for Command to trust Loroi warriors to keep a secret. So the fewer Loroi are in the loop, the better, even if that means replacing a Loroi with a Neridi freighter.
The more maintenance Loroi ships require, the harder it will be to keep them together and keep them secret. I don't know if there's any sort of workaround for this. I mean, I elaborated on the problems with the command staff of an assault fleet knowing about the reserve force, just imagine the problems with a planetary government or a shipping guild learning and then interacting with outsiders. And it's not like you can make resuppliers into a self-contained system, not when their purpose is to take things from somewhere else and give them to the fleet. I really don't know how to satisfactorily restrict information on the fleet while resupplying it to any really serious extent, so I will assume that if Loroi vessels require much by way of casual repair or resupply then my model can be thrown out.
We can learn something about the maintenance requirements of ships without battle damage just by watching the 51st to see if they make any stops. They've been at space without resupply and in combat situations for several days running according to the dialogue between Ashrain and Moonglow; if they don't need to get refit, or even refueled, it's a good bet that Loroi ships are very low maintenance indeed. If they do make any stops along the way, however, it will indicate them to be fairly high-maintenance, since any and all of their missions from here out could be considered of supreme priority, be it "put the alien somewhere appropriate for a first contact," "warn the system defenses," "reach the reserve fleet," "scramble messengers," "find the Umiak attack force and either intercept them or help whoever's fighting them fend them off," or "do something too smart for Solemn to have thought of it."
I suppose some sort of medium maintenance could be shown by having a large number of the 51st transfer personnel, cargo, fuel and supplies to the rest of the fleet and then going off for maintenance elsewhere, which would show that the 51st needs maintenance and resupply really badly while still needing to fulfill its mission. Such a result would produce no useful data one way or the other.
Apart from that (which could only serve to prove me wrong), I suppose that yeah, we'll have no way of really knowing until well into 2017.
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fredgiblet
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Re: Page 90
Curious, I skimmed the Insider and couldn't find a reference to a hidden reserve fleet. Could you point out where it says that? I'm FAR too lazy to go through all of it again right now.
Re: Page 90
Mostly I thought it was implied in several discrete bits, regarding the Loroi strategy of hoping the Umiak overcommit on an offensive even though the Umiak are making assaults with the sole purpose of keeping the Loroi from going on the offensive rather than in order to actually make a breakthrough these days, the Loroi being reluctant to replace or reinforce sector defense fleets in order to avoid showing the Umiak how much of a reserve they're building (indicating hidden reserves and high sector losses being part of the whole luring them into overcommitting thing), the Loroi having a potentially large reserve force but organizing it within a limited number of fleets such that the reserve force is the Seventh Fleet (indicating a centralized command for rapid deployment of reserves, which in turn indicates proximity to me, rather than widely distributed reserves, a concentration of forces which the Loroi probably believed they could get away with while the Umiak would have to stretch their reserves so that they could respond across the entire front because the Loroi have Farseers and less space to defend), the mentions of the Umiak having no way of knowing where the Loroi ships are stationed (I'd think a concentrated reserve force would actually be fairly easy to locate unless it was intentionally hidden, for reasons I mentioned and others, even by conventional Umiak tactics they'd notice some spaces along the front get a remotely decent replacement rate and others don't unless the Loroi wanted to hide their strong points), the notion I have that the reserves would be stationed for the quickest possible response to any such overcommitment (meaning "near the front and already concentrated for rapid deployment, but far enough away that the Umiak don't know they're there so that such an overcommitment could take place at all"), and a lot of other bits where I'm probably just reading waaaaay too much into limited and possibly unrelated chunks of information.fredgiblet wrote:Curious, I skimmed the Insider and couldn't find a reference to a hidden reserve fleet. Could you point out where it says that? I'm FAR too lazy to go through all of it again right now.
I'd elaborate more but I have a sinking suspicion that I'm beginning to sound like someone who should make a guest appearance on a History Channel special on the Shaver Mystery, supporting his theories on the Deros by saying it just flows naturally from knowing about the Grays and the Illuminati.
Re: Page 90
your suspicions are not unfounded. 
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captainsmirk
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:07 pm
Re: Page 90
I think the technology of the setting means that any reserve force is effectively "hidden". Any force that the Loroi hold back beyond the front line are unknown to the Umiak as they have no method of detecting them. Umiak reserves themselves are similarly hidden from the Loroi, as the farseers can't differentiate fleets from planetary populations beyond the empty steppe.
Arioch has indicated in the past that the Loroi have little idea what goes on in Umiak space behind the immediate front line, so I image that the Umiak have similarly little idea what the Loroi are doing.
Having said this the Umiak must surely know that the Loroi possess a reserve (elements of it have been forced into combat before) but whether they are aware of the current build up in its strength (at the expense of replacements for front line units) or its disposition.
Arioch has indicated in the past that the Loroi have little idea what goes on in Umiak space behind the immediate front line, so I image that the Umiak have similarly little idea what the Loroi are doing.
Having said this the Umiak must surely know that the Loroi possess a reserve (elements of it have been forced into combat before) but whether they are aware of the current build up in its strength (at the expense of replacements for front line units) or its disposition.
Re: Page 90
Writes the phrase "THIS GUY IS TOTALLY NOT A SPY" on a wall, draws a circle around it, then draws an arrow to where he stands under it.Grayhome wrote:I look forward to how ALex will convince the Loroi that he is in fact, NOT a spy.
Unfortunately, this won't be very effective. Quite the opposite, really.
Edit: Had the phrase wrong. Fixed.
Re: Page 90
fredgiblet wrote:Curious, I skimmed the Insider and couldn't find a reference to a hidden reserve fleet. Could you point out where it says that? I'm FAR too lazy to go through all of it again right now.
Well Arioch did talk about the emperor building a large fleet for an assault on umiak territory, but is was not claimed to be hidden. Just that it was there. I actually suspected this fleet to be in their home world system
Re: Page 90
well the main reserves could be at either the three different sister worlds, if you mention home world(s) but that me just nick picking.Karst45 wrote:fredgiblet wrote:Curious, I skimmed the Insider and couldn't find a reference to a hidden reserve fleet. Could you point out where it says that? I'm FAR too lazy to go through all of it again right now.
Well Arioch did talk about the emperor building a large fleet for an assault on umiak territory, but is was not claimed to be hidden. Just that it was there. I actually suspected this fleet to be in their home world system
Solemn, has a good point that any plans of attack (or countering an Umiak offensive) would mean that the fleet would have to be close enough to counter any invasion of enemy forces (give the limits of communication).
But maybe both side don't know where others respected reverses are located. Granted you could figure out where they might be if your planing offensive or defensive operations, yet before the war, both side restricted trade to their outer territories. so both sides don't have a good idea of there other inner planets and colonies. Now, they could get old trade starmaps and might have a better ideas; however, both sides are limited in their intel.
Now I know the insider article on the war has starmaps and during tempos explanation of the steps http://well-of-souls.com/outsider/outsider059.html there are maps, but any decent force, would keep their fleets mobile to some degree to prevent detection.
I am a wander, going from place to place without a home I am a NOMAD
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anticarrot
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2011 8:45 pm
Re: Page 90
But why a secret reserve fleet? Surely the main regular Loroi fleets hang back until farseers detect enemy movement, and then they move to intercept.
If the farseers haven't been picking up significant umiak movement, then then wouldn't the main fleets still be at port?
If the farseers haven't been picking up significant umiak movement, then then wouldn't the main fleets still be at port?
Re: Page 90
I don't know anticarrot, I can't recall any "secret" reserve fleet. but the insider guide on the loroi Umiak war states that both side are mounting up an offensive reserve. As for secret, i don't think so ( as fredgibet and karst45 are have commented ). The Umiak and loroi have both been keeping up the pressure on each other boarder in order to prevent the other to use their increase fleet reserve in order to counter any raid or incursion.anticarrot wrote:But why a secret reserve fleet? Surely the main regular Loroi fleets hang back until farseers detect enemy movement, and then they move to intercept.
If the farseers haven't been picking up significant umiak movement, then then wouldn't the main fleets still be at port?
as for fleet position, D'oh, they would be near the front ( as each of the loroi main fleets are position in different areas)
I am a wander, going from place to place without a home I am a NOMAD
Re: Page 90
Y'know, when I initially wrote my first post in this thread, what it said was more like "I think Stillstorm's going for whatever secret the Loroi military built up, since the quotations text in Insider has Arioch saying 'And each side has a trick up its sleeve that is waiting for the right moment to spring on the enemy.' Especially since we just saw the Umiak trick. I think it's just a huge reserve force. Not like the Umiak have anything like farseers to block in the first place, after all, and the Loroi interception fleets are already armed with pulse cannon technology and the Wave Loom, so I kinda doubt it's another big gun. Dunno what else it could be. Some sort of planet-enslaving super-psychic? ...nah, that's the Elerian way, but planetary mind control also way, waaay too far into villain territory."
Then I thought, "nah, too long."
Then, instead of properly editing it, I wrote its current form.
Then instead of correcting myself like a decent person would've I just ran with it.
Sorry.
I have got to learn how to properly edit my stuff. Seems like I always write either way too much or too little. I've tried to head off the problems of the former by trying to limit myself to only making three to four posts a week at the most, but it doesn't look like it helped.
Edit: wall of text placed securely behind spoilers, for your browsing convenience. I... don't know how to trim this down without losing information or coherence. Sorry.
Then I thought, "nah, too long."
Then, instead of properly editing it, I wrote its current form.
Then instead of correcting myself like a decent person would've I just ran with it.
Sorry.
I have got to learn how to properly edit my stuff. Seems like I always write either way too much or too little. I've tried to head off the problems of the former by trying to limit myself to only making three to four posts a week at the most, but it doesn't look like it helped.
Well, I think I remember reading that the size of the reserve is something the Loroi would like to keep from the Umiak. Umiak espionage seems a serious concern to the Loroi given that it's the conclusion that even the standard footsoldiers in the 51st came to when they saw Alex, and Tempo spoke of the enemy as though they'd proven tricky enough in the past to warrant such suspicion; whether or not Umiak espionage is actually occurring, it seems reasonable to assume the Loroi are taking measures against it. Keeping such a force within the center of Loroi space, like among the Sister Worlds, would mean keeping the force near the commercial, industrial, and population centers of the Loroi Union, where, say, a Barsam missionary's vessel (or, perhaps, any vessel that manages to LOOK like a Barsam missionary...) or some random merchant freighter might not only spot and count them, but could more or less be expected to, and would not seem too unusual or out of place. Keeping their reserves at the heart of their empire would make both the vessels and the core assets less vulnerable to attack, sure, but it might actually be more vulnerable to some tricks the enemy might devise, intel-wise, and, hey, Farseers would give a fleet adequate warning to escape detection by Umiak scouts, wouldn't they? A lot harder to act on a warning about how an unknown non-Loroi vessel might be jumping in when you're in a system that can expect regular non-Loroi and non-military traffic.Karst45 wrote:Well Arioch did talk about the emperor building a large fleet for an assault on umiak territory, but is was not claimed to be hidden. Just that it was there. I actually suspected this fleet to be in their home world system
I think it's possible for the Umiak to have more knowledge of Loroi space than the Loroi have of Umiak space. Not necessarily the case, but possible enough to warrant precautions.captainsmirk wrote: Arioch has indicated in the past that the Loroi have little idea what goes on in Umiak space behind the immediate front line, so I image that the Umiak have similarly little idea what the Loroi are doing.
Having said this the Umiak must surely know that the Loroi possess a reserve (elements of it have been forced into combat before) but whether they are aware of the current build up in its strength (at the expense of replacements for front line units) or its disposition.
Edit: wall of text placed securely behind spoilers, for your browsing convenience. I... don't know how to trim this down without losing information or coherence. Sorry.
SpoilerShow
The impression I get from their multiple "Hiatus Periods" on the timeline and their apparent disinterest in the Umiak at the beginning of the History of the War article is that the Loroi were mostly isolationist xenophobes with no interest in the Umiak at all prior to the war, whereas the Umiak seemed to have built up an arsenal and possibly some relationships with local (Tithric) powers in preparation; presumably they also spent this neutral time gathering a certain amount of intelligence, while the Loroi might not have bothered. This means the Umiak may have already had a number of agents in place, and I think that the Mizol might be the only people the Loroi would... eh... "trust" with their spywork, whereas the Umiak would probably use whatever resources might be available, including members of Union races. Delrias seem likely candidates for coopting (probably the best combination of being willing and being able to move around in Loroi space to some extent), as do Nissek (independent ally, civilian ships are probably allowed to pass into Loroi space for trade, and probably feel no real loyalty to the Loroi), followed by Barsam (remember, you don't have to coopt the entire SPECIES, just a few individuals here and there, we're talking about recruiting for espionage, where it's individuals that matter, not armed rebellion or anything else where demographics are what matter most; Barsam seem the most able to move freely through Loroi space, and some of them might feel more love for wealth than for the Loroi Union).
The Umiak have also gained control of a number of governments and societies with preexisting contact with and knowledge of the Loroi (the Morat, the Jilaad, possibly the Tenuki and, oh yes, the Tithric, who would presumably be eager to avenge their genocide and ingratiate themselves with the Umiak upon whom they now depend for survival), whereas the Loroi, in part due to geography but possibly also just by being such a friendly bunch, have managed to avoid drawing anyone with knowledge of the Umiak onto their side, nor have they managed to subjugate any. If the Tithric or Morat had any informants in Loroi space, those informants are now Umiak informants. Again, Tithric or Morat spies wouldn't have to be Tithric or Morat themselves.
Certain members of Hierarchy races might be used as proxies and that there might be explanations or legitimate reasons for such people to be in Loroi space even now; I don't mean doing things like on-the-ground stealing documents spywork, just things like flying along trade routes and sending information on ships that you saw along the way to contacts. There could've been a few Morat traders in Loroi space at the outbreak of hostilities. Sure, the Loroi might've just killed them all, but they might have also simply forbidden them from leaving Loroi space. So they'd just need a few go-betweens to relay information, and I'm sure trade is slower than they'd like (if, in fact, such individuals were ever traders at all, and not actually spies the whole time) and that the Umiak would be willing to pay them well for their valuable work. Sure, information would travel slowly if it had to go all the way to the far side of Loroi space, across some border furthest from all fronts, and transfer through an independent-ish power's space (like the Nissek) before reaching Umiak territory, but this is a war that has taken 25 years, and some intel, like the scale of production or size of a reserve fleet, would probably still matter after a year of travel.
And that's just with flawlessly working Farseers. If Farseers naturally get even a bit fuzzy, then if the Umiak have reason to suspect that there are, say, a dozen interception strike groups covering a given area, and they deploy two assault forces along different routes, both large enough to warrant all five interceptor fleets' full attention (remember the Loroi have been unwilling to commit reserves), I'd think it possible the Farseers wouldn't notice one single one-man ship slipping through the points in-between, entering or exiting Loroi space; a return trip for an agent or go-between could be tied to an attack schedule. The Umiak might have also tested early versions of their Farseer dampener tech in such a way, though I honestly doubt the Umiak would have equipped spy vessels with Farseer dampening tech, since the risk of the vessel or agent falling into Loroi hands and prematurely tipping the Loroi off to the existence of such tech would vastly outweigh any benefit to potentially increase spy activity.
The Loroi seem like they never had an in, never had a chance to set up networks of contacts in the right places, have no member species who would ever have looked unsuspicious in Umiak space, and probably look too suspicious trying to do so now to manage it successfully, but the Umiak (or any of the other Hierarchy races with pre-war contact with the Loroi) might have had such a chance; if so, the Umiak would face unique challenges in dealing with Mizol and having all passage back to Umiak territory monitored by Farseers, but information itself would still be more accessible to their agents.
Umiak society, lacking the Loroi warrior class' strictures regarding commerce, might've paid closer attention to internal and external trade, and may have made more use of merchant records and known trade routes taken from those local subjects. On it's own, such merchant information would not tell the Umiak of the number or disposition of military strong points, but it would certainly tell them where commerce centers are located. Places that will have a lot of different people of species from basically everywhere that is not strictly controlled by the Loroi. Places to start building a network even if no such network preexisted the war. The Loroi would not have any such knowledge of Umiak space, having never done much business there, nor having captured or allied with anyone who ever did; their first contact was facilitated by the Morat, a Hierarchy race. So a humble merchant freighter just minding its own business going along a well-known trade route to a well-known trade center might not arouse Loroi suspicion too much, but a humble merchant freighter just minding its own business out in the middle of nowhere along the Umiak border, far from trade or commerce routes, as if unfamiliar with the region's actual commerce, would arouse Umiak suspicion.
Centers of commerce tend to have a few requirements; they need to be easily accessible by goods (or, alternatively, the only accessible route by which goods may pass; the Silk Road was hard to travel, but also the only way for various places to get any silk at all); they tend to have a high population or proximity thereto (even if the location cannot support people on its own, a population will often spring up around a trade center, so long as trade there is profitable); and they need to be easy for at least two trading bodies to access in order to trade with one another, which in certain instances might help allay any suspicion regarding why a given spy's vessel is heading out of Loroi space and into, say, Nissek territory. And since industrial and population centers would be, if not at the commerce centers, at least fairly closely related (you have get goods, services, sellers and customers, all of which have to come from somewhere, and thus possibly get some gossip or information on those somewheres), the Umiak could potentially gather at least a bit of info regarding production. Unless measures are taken.
Best to attack the problem from both ends, I think. Clamp down on any potential spywork, sure, that's important and necessary, but also try to keep things secret whenever you'd rather the enemy not know about them regardless of how unlikely you think espionage is.
And, again, the Loroi seem willing to suspect Umiak espionage and prepared to counter it, whether or not it actually exists. That's really what matters, whether the Loroi are willing to try to keep their numbers secret rather than whether the Umiak are able to learn it. There doesn't really have to be a single actual Umiak spy in all of Loroi space for the Loroi to be willing to act as though there were, and they seem willing to enact some fairly draconian policies based on suspicion.
Assuming the information disadvantage to be mutual might be an underestimation of the Umiak, who have managed to pull out some major surprises for the Loroi.
Even if it's true, I don't think the Loroi could afford to share that assumption.
The Umiak have also gained control of a number of governments and societies with preexisting contact with and knowledge of the Loroi (the Morat, the Jilaad, possibly the Tenuki and, oh yes, the Tithric, who would presumably be eager to avenge their genocide and ingratiate themselves with the Umiak upon whom they now depend for survival), whereas the Loroi, in part due to geography but possibly also just by being such a friendly bunch, have managed to avoid drawing anyone with knowledge of the Umiak onto their side, nor have they managed to subjugate any. If the Tithric or Morat had any informants in Loroi space, those informants are now Umiak informants. Again, Tithric or Morat spies wouldn't have to be Tithric or Morat themselves.
Certain members of Hierarchy races might be used as proxies and that there might be explanations or legitimate reasons for such people to be in Loroi space even now; I don't mean doing things like on-the-ground stealing documents spywork, just things like flying along trade routes and sending information on ships that you saw along the way to contacts. There could've been a few Morat traders in Loroi space at the outbreak of hostilities. Sure, the Loroi might've just killed them all, but they might have also simply forbidden them from leaving Loroi space. So they'd just need a few go-betweens to relay information, and I'm sure trade is slower than they'd like (if, in fact, such individuals were ever traders at all, and not actually spies the whole time) and that the Umiak would be willing to pay them well for their valuable work. Sure, information would travel slowly if it had to go all the way to the far side of Loroi space, across some border furthest from all fronts, and transfer through an independent-ish power's space (like the Nissek) before reaching Umiak territory, but this is a war that has taken 25 years, and some intel, like the scale of production or size of a reserve fleet, would probably still matter after a year of travel.
And that's just with flawlessly working Farseers. If Farseers naturally get even a bit fuzzy, then if the Umiak have reason to suspect that there are, say, a dozen interception strike groups covering a given area, and they deploy two assault forces along different routes, both large enough to warrant all five interceptor fleets' full attention (remember the Loroi have been unwilling to commit reserves), I'd think it possible the Farseers wouldn't notice one single one-man ship slipping through the points in-between, entering or exiting Loroi space; a return trip for an agent or go-between could be tied to an attack schedule. The Umiak might have also tested early versions of their Farseer dampener tech in such a way, though I honestly doubt the Umiak would have equipped spy vessels with Farseer dampening tech, since the risk of the vessel or agent falling into Loroi hands and prematurely tipping the Loroi off to the existence of such tech would vastly outweigh any benefit to potentially increase spy activity.
The Loroi seem like they never had an in, never had a chance to set up networks of contacts in the right places, have no member species who would ever have looked unsuspicious in Umiak space, and probably look too suspicious trying to do so now to manage it successfully, but the Umiak (or any of the other Hierarchy races with pre-war contact with the Loroi) might have had such a chance; if so, the Umiak would face unique challenges in dealing with Mizol and having all passage back to Umiak territory monitored by Farseers, but information itself would still be more accessible to their agents.
Umiak society, lacking the Loroi warrior class' strictures regarding commerce, might've paid closer attention to internal and external trade, and may have made more use of merchant records and known trade routes taken from those local subjects. On it's own, such merchant information would not tell the Umiak of the number or disposition of military strong points, but it would certainly tell them where commerce centers are located. Places that will have a lot of different people of species from basically everywhere that is not strictly controlled by the Loroi. Places to start building a network even if no such network preexisted the war. The Loroi would not have any such knowledge of Umiak space, having never done much business there, nor having captured or allied with anyone who ever did; their first contact was facilitated by the Morat, a Hierarchy race. So a humble merchant freighter just minding its own business going along a well-known trade route to a well-known trade center might not arouse Loroi suspicion too much, but a humble merchant freighter just minding its own business out in the middle of nowhere along the Umiak border, far from trade or commerce routes, as if unfamiliar with the region's actual commerce, would arouse Umiak suspicion.
Centers of commerce tend to have a few requirements; they need to be easily accessible by goods (or, alternatively, the only accessible route by which goods may pass; the Silk Road was hard to travel, but also the only way for various places to get any silk at all); they tend to have a high population or proximity thereto (even if the location cannot support people on its own, a population will often spring up around a trade center, so long as trade there is profitable); and they need to be easy for at least two trading bodies to access in order to trade with one another, which in certain instances might help allay any suspicion regarding why a given spy's vessel is heading out of Loroi space and into, say, Nissek territory. And since industrial and population centers would be, if not at the commerce centers, at least fairly closely related (you have get goods, services, sellers and customers, all of which have to come from somewhere, and thus possibly get some gossip or information on those somewheres), the Umiak could potentially gather at least a bit of info regarding production. Unless measures are taken.
Best to attack the problem from both ends, I think. Clamp down on any potential spywork, sure, that's important and necessary, but also try to keep things secret whenever you'd rather the enemy not know about them regardless of how unlikely you think espionage is.
And, again, the Loroi seem willing to suspect Umiak espionage and prepared to counter it, whether or not it actually exists. That's really what matters, whether the Loroi are willing to try to keep their numbers secret rather than whether the Umiak are able to learn it. There doesn't really have to be a single actual Umiak spy in all of Loroi space for the Loroi to be willing to act as though there were, and they seem willing to enact some fairly draconian policies based on suspicion.
Better to err on the safe side, right?The Timeline wrote:Enok incident: a Loroi squadron is destroyed on the far side of former Mannadi space. Suspecting Mannadi complicity, the Loroi conduct extermination raids against major Mannadi population centers in conquered territories.
Assuming the information disadvantage to be mutual might be an underestimation of the Umiak, who have managed to pull out some major surprises for the Loroi.
Even if it's true, I don't think the Loroi could afford to share that assumption.
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captainsmirk
- Posts: 39
- Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2011 9:07 pm
Re: Page 90
Whilst it is certainly true they may know more about the form of Loroi space prior to the war than the Loroi do about theirs, my point was the two sides knowledge about current events within each others space. The technology of the setting and the nature of the conflict certainly do much to preclude such knowledge.Solemn wrote:I think it's possible for the Umiak to have more knowledge of Loroi space than the Loroi have of Umiak space. Not necessarily the case, but possible enough to warrant precautions.
Any intelligence assets would need a secure route to physically carry their info back to Umiak space (no FTL communications), such a route would surely be detectable by Loroi Farseers even if only used by a single vessel at a time (even a lone vessel travelling from Loroi space into Umiak space is going to raise suspicion, why would anyone be doing that in the midst of all out war).
I also don't think I implied anywhere that the Loroi were in anyway complacent about this (their reaction to Alex being an obvious example of the opposite). However Arioch has stated that the Loroi (being telepathic) are very effective at counter-espionage and counter-insurgency, any prewar spy-networks I doubt would still be in existence. Also members of Hierarchy affiliated races within Loroi space would I image not be in a healthy state (given the nature of the war).
Although Arioch may feel free to correct me on this point.
